Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Pick

September 28, 7:15 PM EDT

Betting Odds

Braves -111 / Mets -111

This match is the 2nd game of a three-game series and the 2nd to last game of the regular season.

The Mets won Game 2 of this series 4-2. They scored four runs on nine hits, and the Braves scored two runs also on nine hits. New York's Pete Alonso hit his 52nd HR of the season, which tied the rookie HR mark with Aaron Judge.

The Braves won the NL West and will host Game 1 of the NLDS on Thursday against an opponent that has yet to be determined. They have lost three of their last four games and the Mets, who are out of the playoffs, have won three of their previous four games.

This season the Braves rank 6th in runs scored, and 8th in team ERA and the Mets rank 13th in runs scored and 12th in team ERA.

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Pitching Match-Up

Atlanta: Mike Foltynewicz (8-5 4.46 ERA)

New York: Steven Matz (10-10 4.37 ERA)

The Braves have won Foltynewicz's last 12 starts, and he had a gem in his last one tossing eight scoreless innings and only gave up three hits in a 6-0 win over the San Francisco Giants. He has been lights out in his previous four starts only giving up two earned runs in 26 innings, and he has not given up more than two earned runs in his last seven starts. Foltynewicz was sent for the minors for over a month after struggling for several starts. But since being recalled to the big club on at the beginning of August, he is 6-0 with an ERA of 2.35. In his lone start against the Mets, this season on August 23rd in New York he gave up one earned run in seven innings in a 2-1 Atlanta win.

The Mets have lost Matz's last two starts where he totaled nine innings and gave up 13 earned runs. In his previous outing, he gave up six earned runs on nine hits in five innings in an 8-4 loss to the Miami Marlins. He has given up two HR in each of his last two starts. Matz had not given up more than two earned runs in seven starts in a row before getting lit up in his previous two outings. After beating the Braves in Matz's first start against the Braves this season they have lost his last four facing them. However, in his previous two starts facing Atlanta, he only gave up one earned run in each. The Mets have won 12 of Matz's last 16 home starts, but his last start was at home.

Betting Angles

  • The Braves are 11-4 in their last 15 games against the Mets.
  • The Braves are 5-2 in their last seven road games against the Mets.
  • In the last nine games between these teams in New York, the Under record is 6-2-1.

Straight Up / Over/Under / Run Line Records

Atlanta Braves: 97-63 SU / O/U 75-77 / Run Line W/L 81-79

New York Mets: 84-76 SU / O/U 75-69 / Run Line W/L 81-79

Key Betting Trends

  • ATL is 25-11 in their last 36 games
  • ATL is 8-3 in their previous 11 games against a left-hand starter
  • ATL has an Over record of 4-0 in their past four games against a left-hand starter
  • NY is 7-3 in their last ten games
  • NY is 16-7 in their previous 23 home games against a right-hand starter
  • NY has an Under record of 8-3-1 in their past 12 games against a right-hand starter

Team Info

The Braves are getting ready for the NLDS next week, and they may rest some key players for this game. While they have lost three of their last four games and dropped the first game of this series on the season, they have won 11 of 16 games facing the Mets.

Braves 1B Freddie Freeman ranks 2nd in the NL in RBI and after missing two games with an elbow injury was back in the lineup for the first game of this series.

The Mets are out of the playoffs but have ended the season well and will finish the season with a winning record and in 3rd place in the NL East. Their starting pitchers have been solid since the All-Star break going 29-14 with an ERA of 3.14 since the break.

Alonso looks to break the rookie HR record in the last two games and will, likely, become the first Mets' player ever to win the HR title.

Key Injuries


OF Billy Hamilton is listed as questionable for this game, OF Ronald Acuna Jr. is out until early October, and OF Ender Inciarte is out until mid-October.


1B Dominic Smith and 2B Robinson Cano are each listed as questionable for this game.

Braves at Mets Prediction 09/28/2019

The Braves have lost three of their last four games, but they have Foltynewicz on the hill in this game, and the team has won his previous 13 starts. He has been great in his last few starts and only gave up one earned run in his only starts against the Mets this season in an Atlanta win. Matz has pitched well against the Braves in his last two starts facing them, but New York lost both games. He was lit up in his previous two outings giving up 13 earned runs in nine innings. The Atlanta lineup will get to him in this game and Foltynewicz will have another good outing and put those things together, and you get a Braves to win.

Free Pick: 
Take the Braves -111