Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres Odds & Free Pick

Date: 
April 14, 8:10 PM EDT
Location:
TV:

Betting Odds

Moneyline: 
ATL -110/SD -110
Total: 
8

The defending World Series champion Braves hit the road for the first time this season, beginning with a four-game series in San Diego starting Thursday night. Veteran Charlie Morton takes the pill for the Braves here against no-hit kid Joe Musgrove for the home-opening Padres.

Here’s how we homeworked this game, with our free baseball betting pick.

MLB Betting Odds

Thursday’s baseball betting lines opened this game at right around a pick ‘em, with an over/under of eight runs. Both figures were holding steady in the early betting action.

Braves-Padres MLB Betting Preview

Atlanta just dropped two of three games at home to Washington, losing Wednesday’s series rubber match 3-1. The Braves opened this season by splitting four games at home with Cincinnati.

Atlanta exploded for 16 runs in a win over the Nationals Tuesday but it’s been held to three runs or less five times through its first seven games. Perhaps the Braves miss Freddie Freeman.

San Diego, meanwhile, just lost two of three games at San Francisco, losing Wednesday’s series rubber match 2-1. The Padres opened this season by taking three of four games from the Diamondbacks in Phoenix.

San Diego did something similar to Atlanta; the Padres scored 10 runs in one of those wins over Arizona but they’ve been held to three runs or less four times through their first seven games.

Last year the Braves took the season series from San Diego four games to two.

On the injury front the Padres are playing without Fernando Tatis, Jr. (42 HR last year) while Atlanta is playing without Ronald Acuna, Jr. (24 HR last year).

Thursday's Pitching Match-Up

Musgrove is 1/1 on quality starts this season after holding Arizona to two runs and five hits through six innings, with zero walks and eight strikeouts, in a 5-2 San Diego victory last Saturday. Last year Musgrove hit 13/31 on QS and the Padres played 17-14 with him.

In is only start last year against Atlanta Musgrove gave up three runs and seven hits through five innings, with three walks and nine whiffs, in a 4-3 San Diego loss.

Morton, meanwhile, came up two outs short of a quality start in his season debut last Friday against Cincinnati, allowing two runs on just two hits through 5 1/3 innings of a game the Braves eventually won 7-6. Last year Morton hit 16/33 on QS as Atlanta played 17-16 with him.

This will be Morton’s first start against the Padres since 2018, when he was with Houston, and that’s already kind of a long time ago.

Splits With the Sticks

Atlanta is batting ,218 against right-handed pitching this season (170 AB), with a .322 team OBP and a .382 team slugging percentage.

San Diego is slashing .240/.316/.323 (167 AB) against RH pitching this year.

The Bullpens

The Braves bullpen owns a 4.30 ERA this season (29 1/3 IP), along with a 1.09 WHIP.

The Padres pen owns a 4.97 ERA (25 1/3 IP) and a 1.46 WHIP.

MLB Betting Trends

  • The Braves played 46-35 on the road last season.
  • The Padres played 45-36 at home last season.
  • The Braves played 65-55 against RH starters last season.
  • The Padres played 55-63 against RH starters last season.

Totals Report

The overs are 4-2 in Braves games this season.

The unders are 5-2 in Padres games this season.

The overs played 41-38 at Petco Park last season.

The unders played 4-2 in Braves-Padres games last season.

Braves at Padres Prediction 4/14/22

We’re calling this pitching match-up a wash but we give San Diego the edge in the bullpen comparison. Also, Atlanta is without two key sticks from last season, including one big left-handed bat. So while we love Morton and have bet on him many times over recent seasons we’re going against him here and taking the Padres.
 
Free Pick: 
Take San Diego -110