Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies Odds, Analysis, Picks

June 29, 7:05 PM EDT

Betting Odds

Atl -127/Phil +117
9un -115

Two teams playing some good ball this month continue a three-game NL East series as the Braves battle the Phillies in Philly Wednesday night. Kyle Wright gets the call for Atlanta here against lefty Ranger Suarez for Philadelphia.

Who do we like here for our free baseball betting pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Wednesday’s baseball betting lines opened Atlanta and Wright at around -130 over Philadelphia and Suarez, with an over/under of 9 runs. Both figures were holding steady in the early betting action.

Braves-Phillies MLB Betting Preview

Atlanta grabbed the opener of this series Tuesday night 5-3. The Braves led that game 2-0 early and later 3-1, allowed Philadelphia to tie the score at 3-3 in the seventh inning but scored once in the eighth and once in the ninth and hung on from there.

Atlanta cashed in as a +110 underdog on the dime line Tuesday and the game sneaked over a total of 7.5 runs.

With Tuesday’s victory the Braves are 20-5 over their last 25 games.

Even with Tuesday’s loss the Phillies are 18-7 over their last 25 games.

At 43-32 overall Atlanta is now within four games of the division-leading Mets in the NL East and owns the No. 2 spot in the NL wild-card standings.

At 39-36 overall Philadelphia trails New York by eight games in the divisional race but sits only three games back of St. Louis in the battle for the third and final NL wild-card spot.

The Braves lead the season series with the Phillies three games to two.

Wednesday's Pitching Match-Up

Lefty Suarez, by our tough standards, is 4/14 on quality starts this season and two for his last four. Last Thursday he held San Diego to two runs and seven hits through 7 1/3 innings of a 6-2 Philadelphia victory. And over his last four starts he’s allowed 11 runs - nine earned - and 23 hits through 24 1/3 innings.

The Phillies are 9-5 with Suarez this season, 3-1 his last four times out.

In his one start this season against Atlanta, one month ago, Suarez got touched for five runs on six hits and four walks through 4 1/3 innings of an 8-4 Philly defeat.

Wright is 8/14 on quality starts this year but 0 for his last two. Last Thursday he gave up four runs and 10 hits through 5 1/3 innings against San Francisco, although the Braves won that game 7-6. And just before that he gave up five runs and 11 hits through six frames of a 6-3 Atlanta loss to the Cubs.

The Braves are 9-5 with Wright this season and 4-1 his last five times out.

In his one start this season against Philadelphia, one month ago, Wright allowed three runs and three hits through 6 2/3 innings of a 4-1 Atlanta loss.

Splits With the Sticks

The Braves are batting .262 against left-handed pitching this season, with a .337 team OBP and a ML-best .472 team slugging percentage. Numbers like those lead us to rank this line-up among the top half-dozen in Baseball in this split. Atlanta is operating without one key stick in Ronald Acuna, who’s dealing with a bad wheel, but they haven’t seemed to miss him too much.

Philadelphia is slashing .244/.308/.404 against right-handed pitching. This line-up is also operating without reigning NL MVP Harper, who’s gone with a broken thumb.

The Bullpens

The Phillies bullpen owns a 4.12 ERA this season, along with a 1.37 WHIP. Numbers like those lead us to rank this unit among the bottom half-dozen or so bullpens in Baseball.

The Atlanta pen owns a 3.08 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP. Numbers like those lead us to rank this unit among the top six or seven bullpens in Baseball. However, the Braves are now operating without closer Jansen, who was placed on the DL Tuesday with a heart situation.

MLB Betting Trends

The Braves are 19-15 on the road this season and 18-8 against left-handed starters.

The Phillies are 19-18 at home and 25-26 against right-handed starters.

Totals Report

  • The overs are 39-33 in Braves games this season.
  • The overs are 41-31 in Phillies games.
  • The overs are 4-1 in Braves-Phillies games this season.
  • The overs are 18-17 at Citizens Bank Park this season.

Braves at Phillies Predictions 6/29/22

We give Wright the edge in the pitching match-up and Atlanta owns the advantage in the splits with the sticks. Also, Philadelphia will miss Harper more than the Braves miss Acuna. And Atlanta owns the better bullpen even without Jansen. We’re betting the Braves Wednesday night.  

Free Pick: 
Take Atlanta -127