Atlanta Braves at New York Mets Odds & Predictions

August 4, 7:10 PM EDT

Betting Odds

ATL +106/NYM -116
8ov -120

August brings with it crunch-time baseball, and the Mets and Braves will provide some of that with a five-game NL East rivalry series at Citi Field beginning Thursday night. Carlos Carrasco gets the call for first-place New York here against Kyle Wright for second-place Atlanta.

Which way are we going here for our free baseball betting pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Thursday's baseball betting lines opened New York at around -115 over Atlanta, with an over/under of eight runs. Early betting action then bumped the Mets a nickel to -120. There are some -116's still out there MLB Oddsboard.

Braves-Mets MLB Betting Preview

Atlanta just split two games at home with Philadelphia, winning 13-1 Tuesday, then losing 3-1 Wednesday. Just before that, the Braves swept three games from Arizona. So Atlanta is 4-1 over its last five games.

Going back a bit further, the Braves are 40-15 over their last 55!

New York, meanwhile, just took two of three games at Washington, winning Wednesday's series rubber match 9-5. Just before that, the Mets swept three games at Miami, and just before that, they swept two games from the Yankees. So New York is 8-1 over its last nine games.

At 65-38 overall, the Mets lead the NL East by 2.5 games over 63-41 Atlanta.

The Braves also lead the NL wild-card race by four games over second-place San Diego and by 7.5 games over the third-place Phillies and Cardinals.

New York leads the season series with Atlanta four games to three.

Thursday's Pitching Match-Up

This pitching match-up is a rematch of a game played back on May 3 this season, a 3-0 New York victory.

Carrasco is 6/20 on quality starts this season and going very well as of late. Last Saturday, he held Miami scoreless on four hits through 7 2/3 innings of a 4-0 Mets win. And over his last three starts, he's allowed zero runs - 0 - and 15 hits through 18 2/3 innings, with six walks against 14 strikeouts.

New York is 13-7 with Carrasco this season, 5-0 his last five times out.

Over two career starts against Atlanta, one in the playoffs last year, and the one back in May of this season, Carrasco allowed five runs and 13 hits through 13 innings. The Mets split those two games.

Wright is 13/20 on quality starts this year, working on a run of four straight. Last Friday, he limited Arizona to two runs and five hits through 6 2/3 innings of a 5-2 Braves win. And over his last four starts, he's allowed nine runs and 27 hits, although five of those left the yard, through 26 2/3 innings, with five walks against 22 whiffs.

Atlanta is 15-5 with Wright this season, 7-0 his last seven times out.

Over his last two starts against the Mets, one last season and the one earlier this season, Wright allowed eight runs and 13 hits through just nine total innings. The Braves lost both those games.

Splits With the Sticks

Atlanta is batting .244 against right-handed pitching this season, with a .305 team OBP and a .415 team slugging percentage.

New York is slashing .261/.329/.415 against right-handed pitching. The Mets have also scored at least six runs in six games over their last nine matches.

The Bullpens

The New York bullpen owns a 3.61 ERA this season, along with a 1.22 WHIP.

The Atlanta pen owns a 3.21 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP.

MLB Betting Trends

The Braves are 26-20 on the road this season and 38-30 against right-handed starters.

The Mets are 31-17 at home and 43-23 against right-handed starters.

Totals Report

  • The Over is 52-49 in Braves games this season.
  • The Over is 52-45 in Mets games.
  • The Over is 26-21 at Citi Field this season.
  • The Under is a combined 23-15 with Carrasco and Wright this season.
  • The Over is 4-3 in Braves-Mets games this season.

Atlanta Braves at New York Mets Prediction 8/4/22

We give Carrasco a slight edge in the pitching match-up thanks to the slightly better past performance against these opponents. From there, New York owns an edge with the sticks, while Atlanta owns an edge in the bullpen comparison. So the line on this game looks about right. But we like the Mets' pick-up of LH stick Vogelbach, who hit a grand slam Wednesday, and New York owns a wonderful record against RH starters. So we like the Mets for Thursday night.

Free Pick: 
Take the NY Mets -116