Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers Game 5 Odds & Pick

Date: 
October 21, 8:08 PM EDT
Location:
TV:

Betting Odds

Moneyline: 
Atl +127/LAD -137
Total: 
8un -115

Just like last year the Atlanta Braves find themselves one win away from their first World Series berth since 1999. But we all know how that came out. Atlanta gets its first shot at that one last win when they meet LA for Game 5 of this National League championship series Thursday night at Chavez Ravine.

Yeah, the Braves had the Dodgers on the ropes last year, only to lose the last three games, as LA went on to win the World Series. Atlanta can’t let that happen again, can it?

The Dodgers are going with their bullpen to keep them alive Thursday night while lefty Max Fried will try to clinch the pennant for the Braves.

How are we playing this game with our free baseball betting pick?

NLCS Betting Odds

The playoff baseball betting odds opened Los Angeles at around -145 for Game 5, with an over/under of eight runs. Both those figures were holding steady in the early betting action.

Braves-Dodgers NLCS Game 5 Betting Preview

Atlanta leads this NLCS three games to one after taking Game 4 Wednesday night 9-2. The Braves popped out to a 5-0 lead on Los Angeles starter Urias, then put the game away with four runs in the ninth.

Atlanta cashed in as a +205 underdog Wednesday and the game played over a total of eight runs, thanks to the Braves’ four-run insurance policy.

Atlanta took the first two games of this series at home and looked like it was going to win Game 3, before blowing a 5-2 lead and losing. But the Braves bounced right back by taking that early Game 4 lead, and now look to put the dagger to the Dodgers tonight.

With Wednesday’s win Atlanta is 6-2 this postseason.

With Wednesday’s loss Los Angeles is 4-5 this postseason.

The Dodgers won 18 more games than the Braves during the regular season, 106 to 88, and took the season series from Atlanta four games to two. But none of that matters now.

Game 5 Pitching Match-Up

Los Angeles is apparently going with its bullpen, a very capable unit during the regular season, to get 27 outs Thursday night. But this unit’s running a bit hot-and-cold in this NLCS, giving good performances in Games 1 and 3 but iffy outings in Games 2 and 4.

The Dodgers played 25-21 this season in games started by guys not named Buehler, Scherzer, Urias, Kershaw or Bauer.

Lefty Fried is 2/2 on quality starts this postseason. Twelve days ago in the NLDS against Milwaukee he threw six innings of three-hit, shut-out ball, with zero walks and nine strikeouts, in a 3-0 Atlanta victory. And last Saturday in Game 1 of this NLCS he held these Dodgers to two runs and eight hits through six frames, with zero walks and five whiffs, in a 3-2 Braves win.

Atlanta played 18-10 with Fried during the regular season and it’s 2-0 with him this postseason.

Over three starts this season against Los Angeles Fried allowed just five runs and 17 hits through 18 innings, with one walk against 18 K’s. The Braves won two of those three games and all three games played under the totals.

Splits With the Sticks

Atlanta batted .244 this season, with a .319 team OBP and a .435 team slugging percentage.

Los Angeles slashed .243/.319/.439 against left-handed pitching this season.

The Bullpens

The Braves bullpen posted a 3.97 ERA this season, along with a 1.32 WHIP and a 2.47 K/BB ratio. Also, so far in this NLCS this unit has allowed eight runs and 14 hits through 20 total innings of work.

The Dodgers bullpen put up a 3.16 ERA this season, which ranked No. 2 in Baseball, a 1.19 WHIP, which ranked No. 3, and a 2.42 K/BB ratio. But this unit has allowed 10 runs and 20 hits through 21 innings of work in this NLCS.

MLB Betting Trends

Atlanta played 46-35 on the road this season.

Los Angeles played a ML-best 58-23 at home.

Los Angeles played 33-14 against left-handed starters this season.

Totals Report

Unders played 75-74 in Braves games this season.

Unders played 81-70 in Dodgers games.

Unders played 41-34 at Dodger Stadium this season.

Overs are 3-1 in this NLCS.

NLCS Game 5 Predictions

Fried’s been very good against the Dodgers this season and we expect more of the same here. Plus, Big Mo rides with Atlanta, which means a ton to us when handicapping baseball games. Plus, the Braves are getting an attractive underdog price. We like the baseball betting value with Atlanta Thursday night. 

Free Pick: 
Take the Braves +127