Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres Pick - Odds and Betting Predictions

September 30, 8:05 PM EDT

Betting Odds

Diamondbacks -132 / Padres +110

The Diamondbacks opened as the road favorites at -132 in this regular season finale for both teams with a total of 7.5 runs, and the lines have not changed. On the run-line for this NL West matchup, the Padres are +1.5 -150 while the Diamondbacks are 1.5 runs plus +130.

Arizona at San Diego MLB Game Set-up

In the 2nd game of this series yesterday the Diamondbacks beat the Padres 5-4 to even the series at a game apiece. The Diamondbacks scored five runs on seven hits, and the Padres scored four runs and also had seven hits.

The Diamondbacks are out of the playoffs, and after struggling for most of September, they have won three of their last four games. The club has been led by their pitching this season, and in their previous four games they have only given up an average of three runs per game.

The Padres had won two straight before losing to the D-Backs in their last game. They are in a familiar position in the basement of the NL West, and they have the 2nd fewest wins in the NL.

This season the Diamondbacks rank 20th in runs scored and 4th in team ERA and the Padres rank 28th in runs scored and 21st in team ERA.

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The Diamondbacks are 12-6 against the Padres this season. Overall, the Diamondbacks have won eight of their last 11 games against the Padres, and they are 8-2 in their previous ten games facing them in San Diego.

Pitching Match-Up

Arizona: Robbie Ray (6-2 3.91 ERA)
San Diego: Joey Lucchesi (8-9 4.14 ERA)

In Ray's last start he gave up two earned runs on four hits in five innings in a 7-4 loss to the L.A. Dodgers. The Padres had won his previous two starts where he lasted 11 1/3 innings and gave up two earned runs. Rays have not allowed more than two earned runs in his last seven starts. The Diamondbacks have won all three of Ray's starts against the Padres this season, and in his previous outing against them on September 4th he pitched six scoreless innings and only allowed two hits in a 6-0 Arizona win.

The Diamondbacks have had the Padres' number with Ray on the hill in the last couple of seasons, as they are 8-0 in his previous eight starts facing them and 4-0 in his last four outings against them in San Diego. Ray has not taken a loss in his last 13 starts and over last ten starts he is 3-0 with an ERA of 2.52 with 70 strikeouts in 53 2/3 innings.

In Lucchesi’s last start he had his worst one of the season giving up seven earned runs on seven hits in only three 2/3 innings in a 14-0 loss to the L.A. Dodgers. The Padres have lost three of his last four starts including his previous two where he gave up ten earned runs in eight 2/3 innings. Lucchesi opposed Ray on September 4th giving up two earned runs in five innings in the 6-0 San Diego loss.

Lucchesi has given up five HR in his last three starts including giving up three in his last one. The Padres have lost all five of Lucchesi’s starts against the Diamondbacks this season where he has an ERA of 6.85. The Padres are 2-5 in his last seven starts and 4-9 in his previous 13 starts facing a team with a winning record.

Diamondbacks at Padres MLB Betting Angles

The Diamondbacks are 8-3 in their last 11 games against the Padres.

The Diamondbacks are 8-2 in their last ten road games against the Padres.

In the last ten games between these teams in San Diego, the Over record is 7-3.

Straight Up / Over/Under / Run Line Records

Arizona Diamondbacks: 82-79 SU / O/U 74-81 / Run Line W/L 82-79
San Diego Padres: 65-96 SU / O/U 79-77 / Run Line W/L 80-81

Arizona at San Diego MLB Key Betting Trends

  • ARIZ is 8-19 in their last 27 games
  • ARIZ is 3-9 in their previous 12 road games
  • ARIZ has an Under record of 12-5 in their last 17 road games
  • SD is 12-29 in their last 41 home games
  • SD is 2-9 in their previous 11 home games against a left-hand starter
  • SD has an Over record of 5-2 in their last seven home games

Key Player Injuries


[3B] 09/04/2018 - Jake Lamb 60-day DL (09/04) ( Shoulder )
[P] 09/15/2018 - Clay Buchholz is out for season ( Elbow )
[P] 07/12/2018 - Shelby Miller 60-day DL (07/12) ( Elbow )
[RF] 07/08/2018 - Jarrod Dyson 60-day DL (07/05) ( Groin )
[P] 06/01/2018 - Taijuan Walker is out for season ( Forearm )
[P] 05/09/2018 - Braden Shipley 10-day DL (05/07) ( Elbow )


[3B] 08/22/2018 - Christian Villanueva 10-day DL (08/22) ( Finger )
[P] 08/29/2018 - Clayton Richard 60-day DL (08/25) ( Knee )
[SS] 09/13/2018 - Luis Urias is out indefinitely ( Hamstring )
[P] 04/15/2018 - Dinelson Lamet 60-day DL (03/26) ( Forearm )
[P] 06/08/2018 - Jose Torres is out for season ( Suspension )
[P] 05/14/2018 - Kazuhisa Makita 10-day DL (05/13) ( Side )
[CF] 05/29/2018 - Franchy Cordero 10-day DL (05/28) ( Forearm )
[2B] 04/04/2018 - Allen Cordoba 60-day DL (03/26) ( Concussion )
[RF] 03/26/2018 - Alex Dickerson 60-day DL (03/28) ( Elbow )
[P] 03/30/2018 - Colin Rea 60-day DL (03/30) ( Elbow )

Get more details: Arizona at San Diego MLB Match-Up

Arizona at San Diego Prediction 09/30/2018

The Diamondbacks have won Ray’s last eight starts against the Padres while San Diego has lost all five of Lucchesi’s starts against Arizona this season. On top of that Ray is a lefty and the Padres have lost nine of their last 11 home games facing a left-hand starter. This one is not a tough call and while the D-Backs have had a less than stellar month of September they have played well as of late and will end their, somewhat, disappointing season on a high note with a win in their last game. Ray will pitch well while Lucchesi will not, and Arizona will take this game and the series.

Free Pick: 
Take Arizona -132
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