Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres Pick

September 20, 10:10 PM EDT

Betting Odds

Diamondbacks +100 / Padres -120

This game is the first of a three-game series and a critical one for the Diamondbacks, who are battling long odds for a Wild Card.

In their last game, the Diamondbacks beat the Miami Marlins 5-4. They scored five runs on nine hits, and the Marlins scored four runs on ten hits. Abraham Almonte and Christian Walker each went yard for Arizona, who scored four of their five runs in the first three innings.

In their last game, the Padres lost to the Milwaukee Brewers 5-1. In the game, the Padres scored one run on five hits and the Brewers scored five runs on seven hits. San Diego left eight men on base and scored their only run on a solo HR from Eric Hosmer.

The Diamondbacks have won two out of three and three out of their last five games, but things do not look good for them, as with nine games left in the season, they are five games out of the 2nd NL Wild Card. The Padres have lost seven of their last eight games.

This season the Diamondbacks rank 11th in runs scored and 11th in team ERA and the Padres rank 26th in runs scored and 18th in team ERA.

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Pitching Match-Up

Arizona: Merrill Kelly (11-14 4.49 ERA)

San Diego: Eric Lauer (8-9 4.60 ERA)

The Diamondbacks have won three of Kelly's last four starts, and he is coming off a gem in his previous outing tossing seven scoreless innings and only allowing three hits in a 1-0 win over the Cincinnati Reds. He has not given up any earned runs in two of his last three starts, which were both at home and one coming against the Padres. In three starts in September Kelly is 2-1 with an ERA of only 1.35. The D-Backs are 2-2 in his four starts against the Padres, and in the first three he gave up 11 earned runs while not giving up any the last time facing them. Arizona has lost six of Kelly's last seven road starts and only 2-5 in his previous seven starts after a Quality Appearance in his previous start.

The Padres had won four in a row with Lauer on the hill before losing his last start where he was less than stellar, to say the least. In his previous start he gave up four earned runs, six runs overall, in only two 1/3 innings in an 11-10 loss to the Colorado Rockies. He has given up at least four earned runs in two of his last three starts and in his last four starts he has given up five HR. In three starts against the Diamondbacks, this season Lauer is 1-2 with an ERA of 4.24. In 14 home appearances, including 13 starts, this season Lauer is 4-3 with an ERA of 3.08. The Padres have won four of his last five home starts and have won five of his last six home starts against a team with a winning record.

Betting Angles

  • The Padres are 4-0 in their last four home games against the Diamondbacks.
  • In the last six games between these teams, the Under record is 5-1.
  • In the last five games between these teams in San Diego, the Under record is 4-1.

Straight Up / Over/Under / Run Line Records

Arizona Diamondbacks: 78-75 SU / O/U 71-73 / Run Line W/L 85-68

San Diego Padres: 69-84 SU / O/U 70-73 / Run Line W/L 72-81

Key Betting Trends

  • ARIZ is 0-5 in their last five road games
  • ARIZ is 3-8 in their previous 11 games
  • ARIZ has an Under record of 4-1-1 in their last six road games
  • SD is 1-7 in their last eight games
  • SD is 3-10 in their previous 13 games against a team with a winning record
  • SD has an Under record of 5-2 in their previous seven home games

Team Info

While the Diamondbacks have gotten back on track lately their six-game losing streak this month, pretty much, took them out of the playoff race. On top of that their best player in Ketel Marte has a back injury and is questionable for this game and the remainder of the season. Before that losing streak at the beginning of the month, they were at home and swept the Padres in a three-game series.

While the Padres are reeling and have not had a good season if there is one silver lining is that they have already surpassed last season's win total of 66. In their previous four games, they have only totaled five runs, and they won one of those games.

The Padres are five games under .500 at home, and the Diamondbacks are .500 on the road after losing their last five road games.

Key Injuries


CF Ketel Marte and SS Nick Ahmed are both questionable for this game.


The Padres have many players injured either out for the season or out indefinitely, and a few players have been shut down for the season with the team out of contention.

Diamondbacks at Padres Prediction 09/20/19

The Diamondbacks have their backs against the walls in their push for the playoffs, but at least they have a hot hurler on the mound and face the struggling Padres. Kelly has been pitching well as of late, and in his first start of the month, he got a win facing the Padres where he did not give up any earned runs and only allowed three hits. Lauer was roughed up in his last outing where he did not even make it out of the 3rd inning. While Arizona has lost five straight road games, that streak will end in this game. Kelly will have another good start, and Lauer will struggle again. The Diamondbacks will take the first game of this series and keep their faint playoff hopes alive.

Free Pick: 
Take the Arizona Diamondbacks +100

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