Arizona Diamondbacks vs. New York Mets Pick

September 11, 7:10 PM EDT

Betting Odds

Diamondbacks -111 / Mets -111

This game is the 3rd of a four-game series, and the Mets have won the first two games.

In Game 2 of this series yesterday the Mets beat the Diamondbacks 3-2. The Mets scored three runs on five hits, and the Diamondbacks scored two runs on ten hits. New York’s Todd Frazier was 2 for three and had all three RBI.

The Diamondbacks have lost three in a row after a five-game win streak, and the Mets have won two in a row after dropping two straight.

This season the Diamondbacks rank 10th in runs scored and 11th in team ERA, and the Mets rank 15th in runs scored and 14th in team ERA.

Pitching Match-Up

Arizona: Robbie Ray (12-7 4.03 ERA)

New York: Steven Matz (9-8 4.00 ERA)

The Diamondbacks have won three in a row with Ray getting the starting nod, and in his last start he gave up three earned runs on three hits in four 1/3 innings in a 7-5 win over the Cincinnati Reds leaving early with a blister issue. He had not given up more than two earned runs in three straight starts before giving up seven in his last two outings. This start is Ray’s first of the season against the Mets and in four career starts against them he is 2-0 with an ERA of only 0.82. The Rays are 5-2 in his last seven road starts and 6-0 in his previous six starts facing a team with a winning record.

The Mets have won three of Matz’s last four starts, including his previous two, and in his previous outing he gave up two earned runs on six hits in five 2/3 innings in a 5-4 win over the Philadelphia Phillies. He has not given up more than two earned runs in any of his last six starts. Matz was not sharp in his lone start of the season against the Diamondbacks back on June 2nd in Arizona where he gave up five earned runs and gave up two HR in a 7-1 New York loss. There is no place like home rings true for Matz, as he is 6-1 with an ERA of 2.11 at home but 3-7 with an ERA of 6.08 on the road. The Mets have won four of his last five home starts.

Betting Angles

The Mets are 5-0 in their last five home games against the Diamondbacks.

In the last seven games between these teams, the Under record is 5-1-1.

In the last seven games between these teams in New York, the Under record is 6-1.

Straight Up / Over/Under / Run Line Records

Arizona Diamondbacks: 75-70 SU / O/U 67-70 / Run Line W/L 83-62

New York Mets: 74-70 SU / O/U 69-61 / Run Line W/L 71-73

Key Betting Trends

  • ARIZ is 11-4 in their last 15 games
  • ARIZ is 5-3 in their previous eight road games
  • ARIZ has an Under record of 6-1 in their last seven games
  • NY is 3-8 in their last 11 home games
  • NY is 0-4 in their previous four home games against a left-hand starter
  • NY has an Under record of 10-1-1 in their last 12 games against a left-hand starter

Team Info

With the LA Dodgers already winning the NL West the Diamondbacks have to make the playoffs with a Wild Card. They are 2.5 games out of the 2nd NL Wild Card with three other teams within three games. Arizona’s pitching has not been bad during their three-game losing streak, but in that span, they have only totaled six runs.

Arizona has the schedule in their favor for the stretch run, as after this series they play four of their last five series’ at home and only face one team with a winning record.

In the first series between these teams in the first half, the Diamondbacks took two of three games from the Mets.

After giving up 15 runs in two losses, the Mets have only allowed three runs in winning the first two games of this series. They are only ½ game behind the Diamondbacks three games out of the 2nd Wild Card.

Key Injuries


The Diamondbacks have two starting pitchers on the DL in Luke Weaver, and Taijuan Walker and the team is hoping to get both back before the end of the season.


The Mets have three relief pitchers out for the season, and 1B Dominic Smith is on the DL and is expected to come back sometime in mid-September.

Diamondbacks at Mets Prediction 09/11/2019

Matz was not sharp in his only start against the D-Backs this season, but he has been in top form in his last several starts. On the other side of the coin Ray, who has not faced the Mets this season, has been dominant against the Mets in his career and while Arizona has won his last two starts, he gave up seven earned runs in those starts. This game will be very similar to the first two in close and low scoring affairs. Just like in those games the Mets will come out on top in this game, as Matz will have the better outing. The Mets will win again and go for the sweep of the series on Thursday.

Free Pick: 
Take the Mets -111