Minnesota Twins vs. Milwaukee Brewers Odds Analysis & Picks

Date: 
August 10, 7:10 PM EDT
Location:
TV:

Betting Odds

Moneyline: 
Twins -110/Brewers -110
Total: 
8.5

Minnesota's Twins started 10-2 this season but bring a four-game losing skid into the opener of this three-game interleague series with the Brewers Monday night in Beer City. How does that affect our free MLB pick for Monday?

MLB Betting Odds

Monday's MLB betting odds opened this game at around a pick 'em, with an over/under of 8.5 runs. Both those figures were holding firm in the early betting action.

Twins vs. Brewers Set-Up

Minnesota started 10-2 this season but just got swept three games in Kansas City over the weekend, losing Sunday's series finale 4-2. Earlier last week, the Twins took three of four games at home from the Pirates. At 10-6 overall, Minnesota's lead in the AL Central is down to a half-game over Detroit and Cleveland. Milwaukee, meanwhile, just lost two of three games at home to Cincinnati over the weekend, avoiding the sweep by winning Sunday 9-3. Earlier last week, the Brewers split four games with the White Sox, losing the first two at home and winning twice in Chicago. At 6-7 overall, Milwaukee is tied for second place in the NL Central with St. Louis, four games behind the first-place Cubs. Last year the Twins and Brewers split four games.

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Monday's Starting Arms

Houser is three outs away from being 2/2 on quality starts this season. Last Wednesday, he held the White Sox scoreless on five hits through seven innings of a 1-0 Brewers win. And nine days before that, in his season debut, he held Pittsburgh to one run and one hit through five frames of a 6-5 Milwaukee victory.

So on the season, Houser's allowed just one run and six hits through 12 innings, with five walks and nine strikeouts. In Houser's only previous career appearance against Minnesota, back in May of last season, he threw one inning of scoreless relief. Dobnak is a few outs away from being 3/3 on quality starts this year. First, he held the White Sox to one run through four innings, although the Twins eventually lost that game 10-3. Then he threw five scoreless innings in a 4-1 Minnesota win over Cleveland. Last Wednesday, he held Pittsburgh scoreless on three hits through six innings of a 5-2 Twins victory. So on the season, Dobnak's allowed just one run and nine hits through 15 innings, with four walks and eight whiffs. And Minnesota is 2-1 with him. This will be Dobnak's first-ever start against Milwaukee, which might give him an edge for at least the first couple of times through the lineup.

Monday's Batting Splits

Minnesota is batting .230 against right-handed pitching this season, with a .308 team OBP and a .426 team slugging percentage.

Milwaukee is batting just .211 vs. RH pitching this season, with a .307 OBP and a .341 slugging percentage.

MLB Betting Trends

  • Minnesota is 3-5 on the road this season.
  • Milwaukee is 1-4 at home this season.
  • Minnesota is 9-4 vs. right-handed starters this season.
  • Milwaukee is 3-5 vs. RH starters this season.

Totals Report

  • Unders are 10-6 in Twins games this season.
  • Totals are 6-6 in Brewers games this season.
  • Unders played 46-35 in games played at Miller Park last season.

Twins vs. Brewers Prediction 8/10/20

This game is lined as a pick 'em, and with good reason. We call the pitching match-up a push, and while Minnesota owns an edge with the sticks, Milwaukee owns the advantage in the bullpen comparison. Ultimately, the Brewers are playing a little better ball as of late, and while they might get a stick back in the lineup with the return of Ryan Braun, the Twins might be down a stick if Josh Donaldson can't play. We like Milwaukee here, the home team, at a short price.

Free Pick: 
Take the Brewers -110
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