Toronto Argonauts at Hamilton Tiger Cats Week 12 Pick
Labour Day Weekend is all about the rivalry game in the CFL, and I’ll have my eye on the 1-8 Argonauts when they travel down the 401 to take another crack at the 8-2 Tiger-Cats. The line opened with the Argos as +11 point road dogs and a total of 52. Some people say you can “throw out the records” when two rivals meet, let’s study them instead and see if +11 points makes any sense. Kick-off is scheduled for 1:00 pm ET.
Toronto had a chance to stop the bleeding last week against the Alouettes in the Touchdown Atlantic game that was played in Moncton, NB instead of Toronto. The venue didn't seem to distract the Argos much as they were up by more than two scores going into half-time, but a fumbled snap and a bad decision by the HC to go for the kill-shot instead of kicking two field goals ultimately doomed them, and they fell just short 22-28 resulting in a push for my pick last week (I got it a +6.5 but by the time the game went live on the site the line had dropped to Argos +6).
Tiger Cats Overview
Hamilton is on an underwhelming three-game win streak which has seen them sneak by the 1-9 Lions twice and the 3-7 Redblacks once. The Ti-Cats should have lost at least one of those games to the Lions, but BC just refused to win.
This game is the second meeting between these two as the CFL continues to tinker with this year's schedule. Traditionally Labour day would be the first of three match-ups, but this year they only meet twice, so no re-match in Toronto next week. What? The Argos receive the short-end of the stick schedule-wise again? It's getting hard to believe actually. I thought the horror schedule was over last week, but it continues, so the Argos only have only one chance to revenge the 64-14 beat down they took at the hands of the Ti-Cats in week two.
The Argos offense threw for over 400 yards last week and still couldn’t get a win, but depending on what number you had them at they either pushed or covered (+6 or +6.5). I like the Argos chances this week for similar reasons as last week; their offense can move the ball and is improving every week, their defense has talented veterans all over the field and has been pretty solid despite some of the early season results, and their special teams are coming along. Last week they had the chance to salvage their season as motivation, this week that dream might be fading, but if that's true, then this is the biggest game of the season left on the schedule for them. I'd be very, very surprised if they came out flat here.
The Ti-Cats offense has been struggling to score points of late average around 22 per game in the last five. Luckily for them, their defense has been keeping them in games. A couple of weeks ago they almost got caught looking past the Lions who had them on the ropes heading into the three-minute warning. I don't see them looking past the Argos this week though, because of how big of an event Labour day is. The stadium is already sold out and the Ti-Cats hardly ever lose at home, especially to Toronto.
The forecast is saying there is a 60% chance of rain on Monday, so the weather could factor into this one if it's windy and rainy this game might end up a defensive grind.
On the injury front, the Argos are expecting to get some guys back on defense including veterans DB Kevin Fogg and LB Ian Wild. The Ti-Cats will be without their star DB Delvin Breaux for another game but seem to have adjusted to life without him.
- Get more details: Toronto at Montreal CFL Match-up Stats
Argos at TiCats Prediction 09/02/19
This is a classic situation where an under-rated team plays an over-rated squad, and the difference is evident in the spread. I think either side could win this one, but not by two scores. Frankly, I find the 11 point spread border-line ridiculous, and if I were an Argo, I'd be insulted by it. I'm going to fade the usual bad beats that are out there (pick-sixes, fumbled punts, etc.) and go with this one being a close defensive battle between two evenly-matched rivals. I don't play totals often, but if you're into that kind of thing, I think the UNDER is worth a look here, myself, I prefer to take advantage of a weak line when I think I've found one. I’m going with Boatmen again this week and taking the +11 points.