Montreal Alouettes at Winnipeg Blue Bombers Week 18 Pick

October 12, 4:00 PM EDT

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
Winnipeg -3.5

The Winnipeg Blue Bombers picked up Veteran QB Zach Collaros at the trade deadline this week, but he won’t be in the line-up on Saturday afternoon when they host the Montreal Alouettes. Bookmakers have the Al's as +3.5 road dogs with a total of 47. Kickoff slated for Saturday, October 12, at 4:00 ET.

Alouettes Overview

Montreal is coming off an impressive 21-17 home win against the Calgary Stampeders and is now 4-1 ATS since September as well as 3-2 SU. The two SU losses they suffered were road games against quality competition and in each case only by two points.

Winnipeg Overview

Winnipeg has crashed and burned since starting QB Matt Nichols was officially shelved for the year. The Bombers are 0-3 SU and 0-3 ATS since their 35-10 victory over Saskatchewan in early September. Their last two losses have not been close either, falling 13-33 at home to Hamilton and then getting beat down 21-6 in Riderville.

Matchup Overview

These two clashed only a few weeks ago in Montreal in an epic game that saw the Alouettes overcome the biggest half-time deficit in Als’ history. The Bombers 2nd half collapse was not the first of the season, but it might be their last considering their quick-strike offense has disappeared. Montreal has done well in Winnipeg lately, going 2-3 SU in their previous five visits.

The Als are a unique team this year. They never give up when their down. They have shown up for every game, and even when standing wise, it has been irrelevant to do so. They've had some impressive wins over the best teams in the league this year to be sure, but their 2-point loss on the road to BC tells me more about their team psychic than their big wins. That game in BC was for all practical purposes irrelevant, they didn't have to show up, but they did, with their back-up QB starting as well. Montreal doesn't care who you are, what your records are, or what the scores are; they just keep coming at you with everything they have. Montreal just dummied the defending champs last week, if it was some other team I might be expecting a let down this week, but not these guys.

Winnipeg has had offensive woes all season, and even when Nichols was under center, they could only seem to put one half of productive football together. Now without Nichols, defenses are making adjustments even faster, and that offense is struggling. The defense has been playing a similar amount of football per game as the offense, one outstanding half, and then complete collapse. In order to get back on top of the standings this week, they'll need to play all four quarters against a very determined opponent.

Montreal is a little banged up in the receiver core with Chris Matthews out of the line-up this week and BJ Cunningham still on the 6-game injury list. Montreal makes a lot of their downfield completions by buying time in the pocket with mobile QB's anyway, so I don't see these losses as a significant concern.

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Injury Report

The Bombers will be without LB Anthony Gaitor as well as WR Drew Wolitarsky. The Bombers are deep at LB and shouldn't have any problem replacing Gaitor, but Wolitarsky and QB Chris Streveler used to play together in college, and the former has become a bit of security blanket for the latter.

Winter is arriving early in the 'Peg as the forecast calls for snow on Saturday and Temperatures around 32. The wind is expected to be light at about 6 m/h, IG Stadium in Winnipeg was built below the street level, so even when it's strong, the wind doesn't influence the game like it did in the old above ground stadium. The field conditions will be a little sloppy on Saturday, and ball security will be paramount.

Alouettes at Blue Bombers Prediction 10/12/2019

Generally my rule of thumb is never pet a burning dog, and the Bombers are on fire right now, but not in a good way. This game means way more to the Bombers than the Alouettes, but this Montreal team keeps showing up regardless. The Als have proven this year they can beat any team anywhere and this week is no different, since this game might be played in slushy conditions, and the Bombers are for sure going to throw the sink at them, I don't like the Als on the ML, but the +3.5 gives me the warm and fuzzies.

Free Pick: 
Take Montreal +3.5