Montreal Alouettes at Toronto Argonauts Week 11 Pick

August 25, 12:00 PM EDT

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
Montreal -6

The nightmare-ish schedule for the Argos continues as they travel to Moncton New Brunswick to take on the Alouettes as the “home” team. The books are giving the Boatmen a +6 point lead and started the total a field goal higher than usual at 54.5. This week 11 matchup will take place at the Medavie Blue Cross Stadium in Moncton, with kickoff slated for noon ET.

The Birdmen are coming off last weeks epic overtime victory in Calgary where they vanquished the defending Grey Cup Champions 40-34 in their own barn. The Al's needed a last-minute TD drive, a two-point convert, an on-side kick recovery, and a last-second field goal to take it to OT. The score was still tied after the first "mini-game", but the Al's took the second one when Calgary's last chance at the end-zone fell just short.

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The Boatmen, on the other hand, are coming off a frustrating 41-26 home loss to the Edmonton Eskimos. I say frustrating because Toronto played very well in all three phases and actually looked like a competent football team, but Eskie's QB T. Harris and his longtime go-to receiver G. Ellingson were on fire all game. To Toronto's credit, they never quit and stayed right with the visitors until the last minute TD from Edmonton finished them off.

This meeting is the first of only two between these division foes, and it's a big one for Toronto. At 1-7 you would think that the Argo's playoff hopes have slipped the wall, but not in the CFL East. The third spot is actually occupied by one of the Western teams because of the cross-over rule, and the Argos are too far behind to catch any of them, but the 4-4 Alouettes currently occupy the second spot. Toronto is 4-1 SU in it's last five against the Als at home, if they can make that record go to 5-1, they're in a playoff race. The Argos might have to win a close defensive battle to get the W however, as points have been hard to come by in this series as the OU is 3-6-1 over the last ten.

Montreal Overview

Montreal is a different team with Vernon Adams under center than without, that is obvious. He has taken to Kahari Jones teachings like a duck to water and has that offense moving the ball and scoring points. The hard-hitting Al's defense has been keeping opposing teams to around 26 points per game, allowing the offense to manage the game and protect the ball. All in all, they're playing solid football and on paper should outlast the Argo's. My primary concern with them this week is the "what now" factor, last week they set out to prove to themselves and to the league that they were legit, okay they did that, now what? I don't know if this team is mature enough to come off a big win like they had last week and not have an emotional drop-off. The key for the Als this week is to stay hungry if they can do that they're the better team and should win.

Toronto Overview

Toronto has come a long way since they got their collective butts kicked 64-14 in week 2 by the Ti-cats. That team was hard to watch, they were so bad it physically hurts to observe them, and thanks to a bizarre schedule they've had to play Winnipeg and Edmonton twice already. It's no wonder they're 1-7 right now. They are getting better, though. QB M. Bethel-Thompson is getting the ball out of his hands much quicker than before and is now using his legs to pick up first downs when the situation arises, an absolute must in the CFL. The defense was never that bad, to begin with, and the special teams are coming along. Last week they ran into a red hot Edmonton team that is arguably the best team in the league right now. The Argos settled for field goals in the red zone whereas Edmonton scored mostly majors, that was the difference between the two clubs last week if Toronto can improve their red-zone efficiency they definitely have a shot at knocking off the Als this week.

Weather Report

I've never been to Medavie Blue-Cross stadium, but apparently, the playing surface will be turf, and the weather is expected to be nice, so field conditions shouldn't factor into this one much. I have no idea who will be in the stands or who they'll be cheering for. Toronto fans do not travel well, and New Brunswick is mostly a French-speaking province, so this might be more of a home game for Montreal than Toronto.

Alouettes at Argonauts Prediction 08/25/19

I’m going to fade any advantage Montreal might have playing in front of a mostly French-speaking crowd and back the Argos this week. Iron sharpens iron and Toronto has faced the toughest competition the CFL has had to offer this year, and let us not forget their one win is against the league-leading Winnipeg Blue Bombers. With the season on the line and an Alouette team ripe for a letdown, I'm rowing with the Argos Sunday and taking the +6 points.

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