Montreal Alouettes at BC Lions Week 16 Pick

September 28, 10:00 PM EDT

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
BC -6.5

Mathew Shiltz will be under center for the Alouettes when Montreal travels to the West Coast to take on the re-invigorated BC Lions. The 3-10 Lions are favored for the first time in a long time as BC backers will have to give -5.5 to play. The accompanying total is 49.5 right around the average in 2019. Kickoff is scheduled for Saturday, September 29, at 10 pm Eastern time.

Alouettes at Lions Overview

The 7-5 Als are coming off another miraculous come from behind victory after knocking off the Winnipeg Blue Bombers last week with some outstanding play from superstar QB Vernon Adams.

The Als were down huge at half-time but scored over 21 points in the second half to truly upset the Bombers. Friday night's victory halted their one-game losing streak that began two weeks ago in Saskatchewan where they came up just shy falling 25-27 to the Riders.

The Lions caught a break recently facing the dysfunctional Ottawa RedBlacks in back-to-back weeks, which has improved their record from an embarrassing 1-10 record to just an unsightly 3-10. The lions had no problems with the task of dispatching the RedBlacks as they pummeled the home side 29-25 in Ottawa and then again 40-7 in BC the next week.

This is the second meeting between these two out of division foes as Montreal held on for the win three weeks ago at home, downing the Lions 16-21. Saturday's tilt will be held inside BC place stadium where the Lions are 3-0 against the Als since 2016. The Lions also hold the advantage overall ATS record covering 8 of the last 10 when facing the Birdmen.

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Obviously, the big unknown for bettors is what kind of play can we expect from QB Mathew Shiltz who has shown flashes coming in relief of then back-up QB Antonio Pipkin, but this will be his first (meaningful) start in the CFL, and that is an entirely different animal than coming in relief. The former Butler Bulldog has a pretty solid team around him and the perfect coach to guide himin Khari Jones. If the rookie takes care of the ball when passing and hands it off to the RB as much as possible, the Als should be able to hang around in this one. Additionally, there is not a lot of tape out there for the Lions to study, so the Als offense might have a few wrinkles awaiting Rich Stubler and his defense.

The Lions have arguably the best QB in the league in Mike Rielly but are still only 3-10 SU on the year. The most reasonable explanation for this result is the fact that their O-line was missing key starters the first half of the season and the rest just couldn't get it together, also having a new Head Coach, D Coordinator and O Coordinator didn't help. The O-line is healthy again and looking sharp, not just against Ottawa, but against Montreal and Hamilton as well a few weeks ago. Mike Rielly can expect some help from the other side of the ball soon as it is widely known that it takes about a half of a season for a defense to learn the Stubler way. The HC Claybrooks is also a defensive specialist who used to play for Stubler, and I expect that squad to start getting some attention around the league very soon.

With the offense now functioning properly BC can play "complementary" football and really pose a problem for any adversary rolling into BC place stadium expecting a win.

Injury Report

The most significant "injury" report for the Als is obviously QB Vernon Adams out because of suspension. Adams took a swing at Winnipeg linebacker Adam Bighill last week with his helmet, and that earned the night off from the league. Adams and the team have decided not to appeal the decision and to ride it out with Shiltz.

The Lions will be without RB Brandon Rutley as he was placed on the 1-game injured list and OL Sukh Chungh is back on the 6-game. The Lions still have Figueroa and Foucault back up front keep that line together, so I think they’ll be fine without either player.

BC Place Stadium is an inside venue, so no weather report.

Montreal at BC Prediction 09/28/19

Oddly enough BC hasn't been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs yet, actually with their wins over Ottawa they just need to catch Edmonton for the cross-over spot. Realistically though BC is going to be playing for pride. You are what your record says you are, so the Lions will be playing with a big chip on their shoulder for the rest of the season trying to prove they're not hot garbage. Montreal is in no threat of being overtaken in the standings and will probably ride this one out. After the Al's previous miracle win against Calgary they came out a little flat against a Toronto team that should've beat them soundly, but it was Toronto and Montreal again came back and won. I think this week in BC the magic runs out; there is a limit to everything, especially in football. Mike Rielly and Company will not lose to a rookie QB at home when the Als fall behind on Saturday things are more likely to unravel than anything else. Shiltz will have to push the ball downfield and inevitably make a costly mistake. I'm going with the veteran QB and the re-vamped O-line to win big at home, lay the -5.5.

Free Pick: 
Take BC LIONS -5.5