Edmonton Eskimos at Montreal Alouettes Pick

July 20, 4:00 PM EDT

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
Edmonton -5.5

The suddenly powerful Als are home dogs once again when they take on the Eskimos at Percival Stadium this Saturday afternoon. The opening line has them as +4.5 point dogs with a 54 total. Kick-off is 4 pm ET.

Edmonton pancaked the Lions last week 33-6 and have only lost straight up to the undefeated Bombers so far this year. Montreal has quietly won two in a row knocking off the Ti-Cats 36-29 two weeks ago and then embarrassing the Redblacks in Ottawa 36-19 last week.

These two teams opened the season against each other week 1 in Edmonton. The Eskies lead by more than a major for most of the game but did have to fend off a fourth-quarter surge from the Als to hold on for a 32-25 victory. This match-up has not been favorable for Montreal as their record of 0-10 straight up, and 3-7 ATS would indicate. Let's be honest though, Montreal does not have a favorable record against anyone since the departure of A. Cavillo. The Als lost their Starting QB A. Pipkin that game who was looking not bad until they finally pulled him. Considering that fact and it was week one, I'm going to take this result with a grain of salt.

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Eskimos Overview

Edmonton has had an imposing passing attack averaging 339 yards per game through the air this season, dragging the Bomber defense (arguably league-best) up and down the field. They couldn't punch in a major, but they still kicked seven field goals out of eight attempts. That is a lot of time spent in the opposition's territory. Number-wise the defense looks solid as well giving up an average of 20 points per game, but as always in football, we have to look at the strength of schedule and Edmonton has only played one good team so far this year and they lost straight up. I can't give the defense much credit for their play against the Lions who can't pass or run block this year, and the Eskimos have already played them twice. I'm confident the offense will do its thing and score some points, but the defense will have to prove itself Saturday.

Alouettes Overview

I'm not overly surprised with Montreal's much-improved play of late considering the changes they've made at the Head Coach position. Mike Sherman was a successful coach down south but didn't know diddly-squat about how to move the ball against CFL defenses. Kahari Jones, on the other hand, is an expert on that topic. He played QB at a high level for ten years in the league and then coached as an assistant for another ten. Montreal has scored 36 points in back to back weeks against two decent football teams, and they've done it by running the ball and playing solid on defense.

Weather Report

The weather rarely factors in until the fall in the CFL, but it's probably going to be very warm on Saturday with highs in the 90's.

Injury Report

I haven't heard of any significant injuries for either team yet, but teams are often reluctant to share that information until they have to release their depth charts 24 hours prior to kick-off, so it's prudent to check that before making any significant moves.

Eskimos at Alouettes Prediction 07/20/2019

One Swallow doesn't make a summer, but two Alouette victories keep a season alive. This is the first time in a long time the Alouettes have a system they believe in, not only that, they're still in the playoff hunt and are playing meaningful football. Edmonton might be walking into buzz-saw here and could lose SU if they don't bring their A-game. Montreal is going to give Edmonton all they can handle, if the Als fall short it will not be by much. I'm taking the points, and a very live home dog.

Free Pick: 
Take Montreal +5.5

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