New England Patriots vs. New York Giants

These two teams combined for 73 points in Week 17 but we feel that was a misnomer. Neither team had anything to play for (except the Pats perfect record) and NE probably didn't expect NY to put up much of a fight. They were surprised and got behind early before rallying for a close win. This week, both teams know what to expect.

New England's ground game has been performing at a high level as RB Laurence Maroney has topped 100 yards in four of the last five games (didn't vs. the Giants but they were playing from behind) and has totaled 244 yards in the two playoff victories. The Giants ranked in the Top 10 in run defense this season but they will be playing the pass most of the time. The Patriots can run the ball in 3-TE sets or from the shotgun. This is an advantage they have in the run game. QB Tom Brady has been terrific all season and expect him to bounce back from the subpar game he had vs. the Chargers. WR Randy Moss has had only two receptions in the playoffs but caught two TD passes in the first game and went over 100 yards. WR Wes Welker has been a favorite target and he is especially dangerous on 3rd downs.

The Giants led the NFL with 53 sacks and most of them came from their D-line. But remember, 12 of those came in one game. Few teams have been able to pressure Brady and if the Giants have to blitz their LBs to get pressure, they could be in trouble. One break NY has gotten is the return to health of CB Kevin Dockery, who missed the first encounter. He was a starter before a hip injury sidelined him for the last several weeks and he'll play this week. That gives the Giants 5 corners that are at least capable. If Brady has trouble with the passing game, the Patriots can always fall back on the run.

New York ranked 4th in rushing and 4th in yards-per-carry this season and will want to run early and often. New England ranked 26th in yards-per-rush this season and their aging LBs can get tired if they have to defend the run all game. RB Brandon Jacobs is a load and rookie RB Ahmad Bradshaw leads the team in rushing in the playoffs. Like Dockery, he missed the first game. He has the speed to hurt NE on the outside. QB Eli Manning has had a strong playoff but faces a tougher test here. He didn't see everything the Pats had to show him in the last meeting and he'll have to be aware of blitzers coming from different angles this time, especially SS Rodney Harrison. WRs Amani Toomer and Plaxico Burress have also stepped up in the playoffs but don't offer deep speed. They do have a height advantage and that comes in handy in the red zone.

There are several compelling numbers at play in this game. Only one of the Patriots last seven games has gone over 54, the O/U number for the Super Bowl. Away from home, NY has kept 10 of 11 opponents to 21 points or less, while New England allowed only 17 points per game in the regular season and an average of 16 points in the playoffs. I see the running games being more of a focal point in this game and believe both teams will combine to stay under the number. I also like the superior offense and defense of New England to cover the spread.

Take the Under in the First Half **Best Bet**
Take the Under
Take the Patriots