Preakness Betting

Preakness Stakes Wagering Selection
By Brian Mulligan

Before Barbaro is hailed as the next Greek god, let's not forget that they have to run the race and there are no cinches, not in America, not yesterday, and not in the Preakness today.

We have seen this 'superstar' movie before. Remember when Fusiachi Pegasus was deemed the next super horse but was upset in the Preakness by Red Bullet?

The last Triple Crown winner came in 1978. There were 3 in the 70s but 25 years had lapsed before Secretariat matched Citation's trifecta in 1948. It obviously is no easy feat with only 11 TC winners in 132 years and the way horses are trained these days doesn't help the process.

The breeding industry is all about speed and there is so much money offered for juveniles that to have a horse develop and be conditioned to run classic distances is just not realistic if you want to make money in this game.

Positional speed is pivotal in the Preakness every year and we'll get into the race shape down the line but now is as good a time as any to replay last year's smasher.

A rose by any other name could not have been sweeter than the athleticism shown by Jeremy Rose staying on Preakness winner Afleet Alex in 2005. Reminiscent of when Alysheba almost fell at the top of the lane in the 1987 Kentucky Derby, Rose almost was catapulted from his saddle when the eventual 2nd finisher ducked out badly from a left-handed whip.

The visual reminded of a move Baltimore Bullet Earl Monroe used to make in his heyday and Alex was so close to hitting the track, he had to have dirt up his nostrils.

When straightened, the name Afleet became apparent. The runner was much the best and racing fans have not seen a stellar performance like that since.

This year, Barbaro has scared away most of the players. In could play out to be a rider's race in the moderate field, and don't be shocked if there is some trouble. Every rider has an eye on the other and that can cause problems.

This is the way the race sets up from the rail out: When the gates open, it will not be for the meek and mild. The pace will be fast. Like Now has no option except to be sent like a banshee from the rail and he has 3 rank outsiders directly to his left in the post. He opens as the 4th choice on the line but has severe distance limitations and could totally evaporate.

Platinum Couple, who would have paid over a $100 in the Wood, has no right to even be in the race. This Empire bred may never be the same after this weekend and it would be the ultimate justice for connections who have just thrown him to the wolves.

Hemingway's Key may not be the fighter that his namesake invokes but he is a stone-cold closer in a field filled with zip. Seven wide in the Lexington, he had no chance on that speed-conducive strip. He still has a lot to prove, he has only beaten entry-level allowance runners so far, but his trainer Nick Zito has been to a few rodeos and he is on record as saying his horse will run big.

Greeley's Legacy has only won two races on the inner strip at the Big A and with his closing style, his chances are nil to take down the top prize without divine guidance.

Brother Derek had a horrible trip in the Derby. Hung wide every step, forced to steady a couple of times, and he still dead heated to clinch a superfecta spot. This guy will be sent hard today and revenge is a huge motive for connections. Colt is talented and is strictly the one to beat.

Enter the King, Barbaro. His final quarter mile in the Derby of :24.34 was one of the fastest since a little redhead named Secretariat. His 6 and a half-length margin of victory was the fifth largest of all time, behind 4 others that each won by 8 lengths, Assault, Whirlaway, Johnstown, and Old Rosebud. Two of those runners went out to Triple Crown glory.

Sweetnorthernsaint didn't fare well two weeks ago but there were excuses. He was steadied repeatedly, showed a nice turn of foot to reach contention at the top of the lane when making a middle move, but had nothing left in the tank when the real racing began.

Bernardini is the new face and rates at least a glance. He beat up on a small and impotent Withers field at a mile and was losing ground in the lane. He sure is bred to run the classic distances but he will get no favors on the front end.

Diabolical has only won two races but the last at a mile was by daylight and he could slip in for a section. The one thing he has going for him is he seems to be peaking at the right time.

When the gate is sprung, Brother Derek will gun with Sweetnorthernsaint right on his tail. Like Now has no option except to be sent like a quarter horse but he will have a hard time settling, relaxing and clearing. This just might leave Bernardini asking himself 'which way did they go'.

Barbaro will settle down in fifth, biding his time behind the suicide speed duel, while outrunning Hemingway's Key while still in 2nd gear.

After Like Now and Bernardini suck out of the pack and start gasping for air, Brother Derek will put away Sweetnorthernsaint and start to wait on horses. He won't have to wait long because Edgar Prado has him measure and will go by with an eighth of a mile to go without even being asked.

Derek will fight to the end, and still have enough to hold off Hemingway's Key for the show money with Sweetnorthernsaint taking the fourth spot.

Three weeks now to contemplate and hype the race, but when they play New York, New York at Belmont, there will be Triple Crown Fever in the air.

Brian Mulligan was the main West Coast line maker for the Daily Racing Form for nearly 20 years. He continues to contribute to that paper. Check out his other endeavor at LiveHorsesOnline.com. You may write to Brian at xsweep@cox.net

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