Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs Betting Odds - Free NFL Playoff Pick

January 15, 8:20 PM EST

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
Kansas City -1.5

The Divisional Round of this season’s NFL playoffs kicks off Sunday’s action with an AFC tilt between the 12-5 Pittsburgh Steelers and the 12-4 Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium. Game time from Kansas City is set for 1:05 p.m. (ET) and this matchup will be broadcast nationally on NBC.

Pittsburgh at Kansas City Game Overview

Pittsburgh extended its current straight-up winning streak into the postseason with Sunday’s 30-12 beatdown of Miami as an 11.5-point home favorite in the Wild Card Round. The Steelers have now won their last eight games while going a profitable 6-1-1 against the spread during this impressive run. The total stayed UNDER the closing 47-point line against the Dolphins and it has stayed UNDER in nine of their last 13 games. Pittsburgh is 5-3 ATS this season on the road.

Ben Roethlisberger only attempted 18 passes in Sunday’s win and he made 13 count for 197 yards and two touchdowns. Two of those pass attempts were picked off, but it did not impact the outcome of this game. Antonio Bryant came up big with five receptions for 124 yards and two scores, while Le’Veon Bell rounded out a strong performance from Pittsburgh’s Killer B’s with 167 yards rushing and two touchdown runs on 29 carries. Throw in the fact that the Steelers’ defense held Miami to 305 total yards and you can see why the spread in this game is so thin.


Kansas City ended its regular season on a high note with a 5-1 run both SU and ATS in its final six games. The total went OVER 45 points in a season-ending 37-27 victory against San Diego as a 5.5-point road favorite and it has now gone OVER in four of the Chiefs’ last six games. They have failed to cover in five of eight home games this year and they are 6-5 ATS in 11 games when closing as favorites.

Quarterback Alex Smith, running back Spencer Ware and tight end Travis Kelce may not be as dynamic a trio of playmakers as the Steelers’ big three on offense, but they can all hurt you in a number of ways. Ware led the Chiefs in rushing with 921 yards on 214 carries and Kelce caught a team-high 85 passes for 1,125 yards. Smith is known as the ultimate game manager under center, but he still completed an efficient 67.1 percent of his 489 passing attempts for 3,502 yards and 15 touchdowns. One big edge for Kansas City in this matchup is a defense that is ranked seventh in the NFL in points allowed (19.4)

Pittsburgh at Kansas City Game Betting Trends

  • The Steelers are 0-3-2 ATS in their last five road games in the playoffs, but they have gone 3-0-1 ATS in their last four Divisional Round games in the postseason. The total has gone OVER or ended as a PUSH in 17 of their last 22 playoff games.
  • The Chiefs have failed to cover in seven of their last eight postseason games including a 0-4 record ATS in their last four playoff games at home. The total has stayed UNDER in seven of their last nine games following a SU win.
  • The home team has covered the spread in seven of the last eight meetings and the total has stayed UNDER in four of the last five games between the two. It did go OVER 48 points in early October when Pittsburgh crushed Kansas City 43-14 as a three-point home favorite.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs Prediction

Betting against Pittsburgh right now probably does not make all that much sense in the midst of this impressive winning streak, but Kansas City is not about to roll over and die this Sunday afternoon at Arrowhead. The Chiefs are also in excellent form and looking to advance to the conference title game following last season’s tight loss to New England in the Divisional Round.

This Sunday’s game remains too close to call in my book, but I do like the play on the UNDER with the total line sitting at 45. It is January in Kansas City and I think both defenses are going to elevate their play to keep this a low-scoring affair.

Free Pick: 
Take the Under 45

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