Wagers on propositions, which are commonly referred to as prop bets, can take on many forms when it comes to the NFL. Player props are released in the offseason for things such as MVP odds or odds for Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year and they are also released on a game by game basis for certain players' performances in that week's particular matchup. The bottom line when it comes to betting on NFL props is that they can be lucrative to your overall bankroll, but you have to be willing to do your homework to know where and how to look for the low hanging fruit that always exists with these type of bets.
Betting on player props that are released in the offseason is very similar to betting on futures such as total team wins and odds to win a division, conference or Super Bowl. They are very speculative in nature and often times hard to cash in on. The prop bets that offer the best opportunity to make some money are the individual player props that are released each week of the regular season for that week's upcoming game.
These type of player props usually revolve around how many yards or touchdowns will a quarterback throw for. They will offer odds in the form of an "over/under" number along with an accompanying moneyline on a running back's total rushing yards or wide receiver's total receiving yards gained for that particular game. These player props are usually released well in advance of kickoff so you will have plenty of time to breakdown the odds.
Sportsbooks base their odds for these player props mainly on statistical averages so many times you can find someone that will be overvalued or undervalued based on their current form. This makes betting player props a bit tricky early in the season, but once a player has a few games under their belt, you can get a much better handle on their current form. Other factors for evaluating prop bet odds are lingering injuries, that week's opponent and is the game being played at home or on the road. You have to take all these things into consideration, but the biggest factor will always be how someone is currently performing verse their overall average.
The trick to consistently hitting player props is to uncover which players are overvalued for that week's game and which ones are undervalued. There are always bad prop bet lines to be found, but you have to be willing to dig deep into the numbers to find out exactly where the biggest gaps exist.
The prop bet odds for Peyton Manning's total passing yards for a game could be set at "over/under 350". Last season he averaged 340 passing yards per game so this number would be right in line with his overall potential. After taking into consideration the health of his receiving corps and the defensive secondary he is facing, it is still going to come down to how Manning is playing coming into this game. If he has been lighting teams up in his past few outings there is a good chance he will light it up again the next time he takes the field.
Skill players such as quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers are often streaky by nature so you will want to lean towards the OVER on their prop bet odds when they are hot and keep riding this trend until they cool down. If you come across a player that is overvalued in light of both current form and the defense they are facing that week, then this sets-up the perfect scenario for a play on the UNDER. Betting on NFL player props is a very fluid situation that can dramatically change on a weekly basis, so you constantly need to be on top of things in order to consistently end-up on the right side of a play.
These type of bets are an excellent way to supplement your overall betting strategy for the NFL. I would not recommend allocating more than 10 percent of your total bankroll betting player props unless you are willing to commit a fairly large percent of your NFL prep time handicapping them.