The NFL Draft is right around the corner and all 32 teams will be looking for those few pieces of the puzzle that can have a dramatic impact right out of the gate when a new season of football gets underway in September. In advance of this year’s draft, BetOnline has released a number of early regular season props covering everything from betting odds for a perfect winning and losing season to the lowest amount of wins by an eventual division winner.
After breaking down the list of betting options, the following few prop bet picks offer the best value in the posted odds.
Highest Regular Season Win Total
The “over/under’ for this prop has been set at 13.5 with the betting odds favoring the OVER at -135. The moneyline odds for the UNDER have been set at +170.
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Going back over the past few NFL regular seasons, you would find at least one team with at least 14 wins in five of the last nine years going back to 2008. New England posted 14 wins last season after Carolina went 15-1 in 2015. Given their continued success and their recent player personnel moves this offseason, many NFL experts believe that the Patriots should be able to meet or even exceed 14 wins in 2017.
Given just how hard it is to stay on top in this league, I am going to go in the other direction and take the added value in the UNDER 13.5 wins for this prop. The AFC East continues to get more competitive each season led by Miami’s 10 wins in 2016 and I do not see any other NFL team getting past 13 wins in 2017.
Lowest Total Regular Season Wins by a Division Winner
When it comes to the betting odds for this prop, they favor the OVER play on 8.5 wins at -260 with the moneyline on UNDER 8.5 wins set at +200.
Parity in the NFL is alive and well, especially in the AFC South where nine wins won the division title the past two seasons. If you go back to the 2014 season, Carolina was the top team in the NFC South at 7-8-1 and the season before Green Bay won the NFC North with a record of 8-7-1.
I would expect the tight competition in the AFC South to hold true in 2017 with no one team running away from the field in that division title race. Eight wins could get it done; adding some value to the UNDER play in this prop. Another competitive division could be the NFC South with Atlanta dropping back to the rest of the field following its devastating collapse in last year’s Super Bowl. I am not sure if eight wins will hold up to win this division race, but the parity should be there to keep things tight to Week 17 of the regular season. These two division races give me enough reason to make a small play on the UNDER in this prop to try and take advantage of the favorable moneyline odds.
At Least One Regular Season Game Ends in a Tie
The current betting odds for this prop favor YES at -155 and the moneyline odds that no NFL regular season game will end in a tie in 2017 have been set at +125.
Rule changes to overtime in the NFL were one team gets a chance to score a touchdown and win if the other team only manages a field goal in its first possession in the extra quarter have opened the door to more ties in recent years. Last season, two games ended in a tie and there has been at least one tie in two of the previous three NFL regular seasons.
Under the right circumstances, it is relatively easy for an entire quarter to end scoreless so it stands to reason that any game ending as a tie in regulation could remain scoreless for the entire 15 minutes of overtime. There is also a chance, as was the case in 2015, that every game will have a decided winner and loser, which is enough for me to go with the added value in the +125 betting odds for the NO for this prop.