NFL analyst Dave Schwab gives an overview of what the NFC West teams added and lost in the offseason along with his opinion on who the teams to beat will be. A review of last season and where Dave thinks the betting value is.
With the Rams returning to Los Angeles this season, the NFC West is once again on point when it comes to the geographical location of all four teams. When it comes to the actual betting odds to win the 2016 division title it is a different story with two top contenders and two big longshots.
The Seattle Seahawks and the Arizona Cardinals have held down the first two spots in the NFC West standings for the past two seasons with each team taking a turn claiming the division title. The futures odds at BetOnline to win the 2016 NFC West title point heavily towards another two-team race.
The Seattle fell back to 10 wins last season after posting 11 or more in each of the previous three years. It cost them the division title and they went on to exit the playoffs in the Divisional Round in a 31-24 loss to Carolina. The bar has once again been raised high for this team as a +400 favorite to return to the Super Bowl as the NFC Champion and Seattle is well aware that the road to get there is much easier when you have a first round bye. The two main reasons for such high expectations is a defense that was first in the NFL in points allowed and offense that was fourth in scoring.
Marshawn Lynch is gone so it will be up to Thomas Rawls to carry the load in the ground game. The Seahawks added some depth to the offense through the draft with guard Germain Ifedi in the first round and running back CJ Prosise and tight end Nick Vannett in the third. However, this vaunted defense did take a hit in free agency with defensive tackle Brandon Mebane and linebacker Bruce Irvin departing for greener pastures.
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Arizona took the Seahawks’ spot at the top of the division with 13 wins last season and it went all the way to the NFC title game before also losing to Carolina. Head coach Bruce Arians has been at the helm for three seasons and his win total has gone up each year starting with a 10-6 record in 2013. The Cardinals will once again turn to veteran quarterback Carson Palmer to run the offense after finishing fourth in the NFL last season in total passing yards (4,671). Also back is his favorite target Larry Fitzgerald, who had 109 receptions for 1,215 yards and nine touchdowns.
Arizona also posted some gaudy stats with the second-highest scoring offense in the league complementing a defense that was ranked fifth in total yards allowed. Arians decided to use four of his six draft picks on the defensive side of the ball and he used free agency to sign former Kansas City safety Tyvon Branch as a replacement for the departed Rashad Johnson. The Cardinals remain loaded on both sides of the ball and there is some solid value in the -160 betting odds on winning more than 10 games this year.
It is a brand new location for the new-look Rams, but you have to question what will be the driving force behind ending a 12-year drought when it comes posting a winning season. They took a step in the right direction last season at 7-9, but you get the feeling that head coach Jeff Fisher will quickly find himself on the hot seat if this team gets off to a slow start. This will be his fifth season at the helm and his teams have never finished higher than third in the NFC West.
The Rams’ defense took a hit in free agency with the loss of defensive backs Janoris Jenkins and Rodney McLeod and they parted ways with defensive end Chris Long and linebacker James Laurinaitis. On the offensive side of the ball, all eyes will be on rookie quarterback Jared Goff as the first overall pick of the draft. Los Angeles also made a splash in the 2014 NFL Draft when it selected running back Todd Gurley. He ended his rookie season with 1,106 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns on 229 carries. The Rams are another one of those teams that has been stockpiling talent through the draft the past few seasons, but it has yet to translate to a winning record.
The fall from first to worst in the NFC West over the past three seasons has the 49ers as the longest shot on the board to win the NFC in 2016 at +5000 betting odds. Chip Kelly has been brought in as the new head coach after wearing out his welcome in Philadelphia in just three years. He did manage to win 10 games in his first season with the Eagles, but he has much more of a project on his hands in San Francisco. The betting odds on this team’s projected win total of 5.5 games favors the UNDER at -130.
Colin Kaepernick is still penciled-in as the 49ers’ starting quarterback, but do not be surprised if Blaine Gabbert is under center on opening day. Kelly was relatively quiet in free agency compared to his wheeling and dealing days in Philly and he used most of his draft picks to fill some holes on a defense that was 27th in the league against the pass and 29th at stopping the run. San Francisco is definitely in a rebuilding mode after its fall to the bottom of the NFC West last year at 5-11 and anything more than five wins in 2016 would have to be considered a success.
This division is a two-team race between Seattle and Arizona, but all the value in the current betting odds to win the title are with the Cardinals at +150. Arizona is still a 12-win team in my book, while Seattle will struggle to hit the OVER on its projected 10.5 win total this year.