NFL analyst David Schwab gives an overview of what teams added and lost in the offseason along with his opinion on who the teams to beat will be. A recap of last season and a look at the upcoming schedule will also be included as well as a wagering tip at the end.
The Carolina Panthers have won the last three NFC South Division titles and they are coming off a 15-1 regular season that was a springboard to a run all the way to Super Bowl 50. While it is no surprise that BetOnline has opened Carolina as a prohibitive favorite to win the NFC South again in 2016, it was not all that long ago that this division was completely up for grabs every single season.
It is a “Carolina against the Field” scenario when it comes to BetOnline’s 2016 NFL futures odds to win the NFC South Division title, but when you take a closer look at all four teams in this division race things may not be as lopsided as the current betting odds try to suggest.
Carolina Panthers -275
The Panthers’ bid to win a world title came up short in a 24-10 loss to Denver in Super Bowl 50, but they remain one of the top teams in the NFC heading into the 2016 season and definitely the class of the NFC South. The big question facing any team that comes up on the losing end of a Super Bowl is how it reacts to such a devastating defeat. Carolina is a +500 third-favorite to repeat as conference champs and the money line odds on a projected win total of 10.5 games favors the OVER at -125 so it is safe to say that they should win the division again.
From a personnel standpoint a good portion of last year’s roster remains intact. The Panthers did part ways with punter Brad Norman and there is a contract issue with defensive tackle Kawann Short, but that should work itself out before the start of the regular season. Head coach Ron Rivera used the draft to add some depth to the defensive line and the defensive secondary and that can only help a unit that was sixth in the NFL last season in both points and total yards allowed.
Atlanta Falcons +650
You would have to go back to the 2012 season to find the last time the Falcons held the top spot in the NFC South and they are coming off an 8-8 record in 2015. This is still the type of team that could make a run at the Panthers behind the combination of Matt Ryan throwing the ball to Julio Jones. Both players are near the top of the 2016 player prop list for most passing and most receiving yards. Second-year head coach Dan Quinn used free agency to add another weapon to the passing game with the addition of former Cincinnati wide receiver Mohamed Sanu.
Atlanta dipped to 21st in the NFL in scoring last season with an average of 21.2 points a game, but many experts believe that this could be one of the most improved offenses from 2015. Quinn still needs to address some issues on the defensive side of the ball, but he did fill a few holes with safety Keanu Neal in the first round of the draft and linebacker Deion Jones in the second round. The key to turning things around in 2016 still lies in the play of Ryan as one of the top passing quarterbacks in the league. If he can return to the form that led to 13 wins in 2012, the Falcons could make things very interesting for Carolina.
New Orleans Saints +700
The Saints are another team that has fallen quickly from their once lofty perch over the past two years. They are coming off back-to-back seven win seasons and their projected win total for 2016 stands at seven games with a -120 money line slightly favoring the UNDER. Drew Brees is still under center at quarterback and Sean Payton is still calling the shots from the sideline as head coach. This is enough for me to believe that New Orleans can somehow work itself back into the mix in this division race.
The addition of tight end Coby Fleener and linebacker Craig Robertson as free agents is a step in the right direction on both sides of the ball. Payton used his first round pick of the draft to select defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins and he gave Brees a new target in the passing game by selecting wide receiver Michael Thomas in the second round. New Orleans still has quite a few pieces in place on offense to get back to its winning ways in 2016, but it is going to need a much better performance from a defense that was ranked near the bottom of the NFL in a number of major categories last year.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +700
Following last year’s 6-10 mark, the Buccaneers have now occupied the basement of the NFC South for the past five seasons. Lovie Smith took this team in the right direction from two wins in 2014 to six wins in his second season as head coach, but Tampa Bay still decided to go in a different direction by naming Dick Koetter head coach after serving as the team’s offensive coordinator. The Bucs were active in free agency highlighted by the addition of defensive end Robert Ayers and they made cornerback Vernon Hargreaves the 11th overall pick of the 2016 NFL Draft. Much like the Saints, the Achilles heel of this team is a defense that was ranked 28th in the league in points allowed last season.
Offensively, Tampa Bay could be a whole other story this year. Jameis Winston showed some flashes of greatness in his rookie year as Tampa Bay’s new franchise quarterback and Mike Evans is a legitimate threat at wide receiver after catching 74 balls for 1,206 yards and three touchdowns in his second season in the NFL. Doug Martin anchors the ground game as one of the top running backs in the league so there is some firepower on this side of the ball.
It would be hard to bet against Carolina winning the NFC South again this season, but there is no real value in its -275 betting odds to do so. I would possibly take a small flyer on the Falcons at +675 odds if I had to make a bet. You have to keep in mind that there is a pretty strong precedent for a team losing a Super Bowl to fall flat on its face the following season.