NFL analyst Dave Schwab gives an overview of what the NFC North teams added and lost in the offseason along with his opinion on who the teams to beat will be. A review of last season and where Dave thinks the betting value is this year.
It is pretty obvious from BetOnline NFL futures odds to win the NFC North that Green Bay is a prohibitive favorite, but they will not enter the 2016 regular season as the defending division champs. That honor belongs to Minnesota as a second-favorite to win the NFC North again this year. Here is my take on this division race for the upcoming year.
At one point last season when the Packers went a perfect 6-0 out of the gate, the futures odds to win the NFC North were listed as Green Bay vs. The Field. The Packers stumbled to a 4-6 record over their last 10 games to make into the playoffs as a wild card team. When you have a quarterback like Aaron Rodgers running the show, last season’s mini collapse just becomes fuel to fire up the engines for a much better effort in 2016. Green Bay still has quite a bit of talent on both sides of the ball and it has a proven history of bouncing back from adversity under the guidance of head coach Mike McCarthy.
Four of McCarthy’s first five draft picks this past offseason were used to add depth to the defensive front seven. Green Bay’s defense slipped to 15th in the NFL last year in total yards allowed and it was ranked 12th in points allowed. That is not all that bad, but this team has high aspirations of winning it all in 2016 so it is going to have to play better on this side of the ball.
The Vikings quietly went about their business last season with four wins in their last six games to win the NFC North title at 11-5. A heart-breaking loss to Seattle in the Wild Card Round on a missed chip-shot field goal should work as a motivational tool for a team that still has Adrian Peterson anchoring the running game and a young gun at quarterback in Teddy Bridgewater moving the ball down the field with both his arm and his legs. Minnesota’s defense was 13th in the league in total yards allowed, but it improved all the way to fifth when it came to giving up points.
Head coach Mike Zimmer decided to go with wide receiver Laquon Treadwell as his first round draft pick this year and he also added rookie guard Alex Boone to beef up his offensive line. On the defensive side of the ball, the Vikings signed safety Michael Griffin and linebacker Travis Lewis as free agents and Zimmer used four of his remaining seven draft choices on defensive players. With a projected win total of 9.5 games and a money line favoring the OVER at -150, Minnesota should remain in the 2016 NFC North title race all season long.
The Lions were a team on the rise heading into the 2015 NFL regular season with 11 wins the season before, but they dropped to third in the division last year at 7-9. Their projected win total for this season stands at 7.5 wins with a -140 money line favoring the UNDER and that could be a very solid bet. This is a team that has had a very hard time trying to sustain any kind of ongoing success so a step backwards to five or six wins this year could be a strong possibility. Detroit still has a bona fide gunslinger in Matthew Stafford at quarterback, but 300 yard passing games do not always add up to wins.
The main concern would be a defense that has gotten progressively worse under head coach Jim Caldwell. Last season this unit was ranked 18th in yards allowed and 23rd in points allowed, which was a significant drop off from the 2014 season. The addition of defensive tackle Stefan Charles from Buffalo and safety Rafael Bush from New Orleans as free agents is a step in the right direction, but it is not nearly enough to compete with the likes of Green Bay and even Minnesota for the division crown.
The Bears last won the NFC North in 2010 when they went 11-5 under Lovie Smith. With John Fox taking over as the team’s third head coach four years in 2015, there is still a sense instability in this storied franchise. Jay Cutler is entering his 11th NFL season and the jury is still out on his ability to lead his team to a division title let alone a Super Bowl. Running back Matt Forte is now with the New York Jets and wide receiver Alshon Jeffery has been hampered with a hamstring injury in the early stages of summer camp.
The main problem for the Bears over the past two seasons has been a slow start out of the gate that has left them in an early hole in the division race. Last season they dropped to 6-10 overall after losing four of their last five games. Fox used five of his first six draft picks on the defensive side of the ball after his team finished last season ranked 20th in the league in points allowed, but it could take another season or two before he really starts to turn things around.
I would have to go chalk with Green Bay in this division race just because it has been a proven commodity in the NFC North for quite a long time. We have witnessed some false starts by the Vikings in the past and they will be hard-pressed to duplicate last year’s 11 wins.
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