New York Jets at New England Patriots Betting Lines - Free ATS Pick
New York was shellacked 34-13 at home by Miami on Saturday. New England won their 5th-straight game on Sunday with a 16-3 win at Denver. The Patriots won the Week 12 matchup 22-17.
NY QB Bryce Petty was knocked out of the game last week (chest injury) but will start this week. He didn’t play in the earlier meeting. He has looked comfortable as a starter but had his struggles last week (2 picks, lost fumble). He faces a New England defense that allows 248 passing ypg, so he should be able to find receivers. WRs Brandon Marshall and Quincy Enunwa were productive in the first game but have largely disappeared with Petty under center. Petty has targeted rookie WR Robbie Anderson the most amongst the wideouts and Anderson has delivered (4-80-1 last week). The Pats notched 4 sacks last week and have 32 on the year. The Jets allow about 1.5 sacks per game and Petty will have to make quick reads against this pass rush that will be designed specifically for this game. RB Bilal Powell has really emerged in the past 2 weeks and while RB Matt Forte will play, look for Powell to be the lead back. He is also a big threat out of the backfield (11 catches last week). The Patriots allow 4.0 ypc but less than 90 ypg as their opponents generally have to pass to catch up.
New England won last week despite an uncharacteristically poor performance from QB Tom Brady (16-32, 188 yards, 0 TD passes). He threw for 286 yards and 2 TDs in Week 12 and wasn’t sacked. The Patriots usually alternate game plans every week and have leaned more on the run in recent weeks. RB Dion Lewis has missed most of the season due to injury but is getting most of the carries now (18-95 last week). RB LaGarrette Blount had 17 carries last week but only gained 31 yards. He scored again giving him an NFL-leading 15 on the season. He’s the back likely to get the ball close to the goal line. New York’s run defense was good against the Dolphins (27-67) and I think they can hold up with their front seven against this ground attack. Where they will have trouble is if Brady plays a typical Brady-like game. Weather conditions could play a part in this contest but in order for the secondary to hold up, NY must get a pass rush on Brady or it could be a long day in Foxboro for the DBs.
Public Money Consensus
In this weeks NFL matchup between the Jets and the Patriots it appears the public is slightly leaning to New England to cover the massive 17 point spread. The over/under on this game looks like the betting public is evenly split on the 44.5 total.
Take the Jets +17 Prediction
The Patriots need to win this game to maintain their No.1 seed for the playoffs. New York is finishing a very difficult season and getting a look at Petty to see if he is in their future plans. He will have a better chance at success if he looks more at Marshall and Enunwa, especially in this game. The Jets were blown out 49-19 in 2012 by New England but every game since has been decided by 9 or fewer points and the Jets have actually won a few of those games. While I expect the Pats to win this game, I think some pride and competitiveness still remains with these Jet players and they will give a decent accounting of themselves. They must do 2 things in this game; run the ball affectively and mount some pressure on Brady.
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