New England Patriots at Atlanta Falcons Betting Odds - Free Super Bowl Pick

February 5, 6:30 PM EST

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
New England -3

The pairing for Super Bowl LI at NRG Stadium in Houston on Sunday, Feb. 5 has been set with the AFC’s New England Patriots facing off against the NFC’s Atlanta Falcons. Kickoff for this championship tilt has been set for 6:30 p.m. (ET) and the game will be broadcast nationally on FOX.

New England vs. Atlanta Game Overview

Even with Tom Brady out of the starting lineup at quarterback for the first four games of the regular season due to a NFL imposed suspension, New England was expected to be in this game. That suspension only acted as fuel to the fire in the Patriots dominating 16-2 straight-up run to Super Bowl LI while lining the pockets of bettors along for the ride at 15-3 against the spread. The total went OVER in Sunday’s 36-17 romp against Pittsburgh in the AFC title game with New England closing as a six-point home favorite and it has gone OVER in its last three games.

Brady ended the game against the Steelers with 384 passing yards and three touchdown throws against zero interceptions and just two sacks for 10 yards. There might be some concern with a running game that only managed to gain 57 yards on 27 attempts in that lopsided rout, but this season’s Super Bowl is shaping up to be an all-out aerial assault between two of the top passing offenses in the league. New England came out of that AFC title game in relatively good shape with no major additions to the injury list.


Football bettors knew that Atlanta could put some serious points on the board heading into this season if its top offensive weapons played to form, but a run all the way to the Super Bowl was not really in the cards. Flash forward five months later and Falcons have proved more than a few NFL experts wrong with a SU 13-5 run to Super Bowl LI while going 12-6 ATS. They saved their best for last by completely dismantling a very hot Green Bay team 44-21 in the NFC title game as 6.5-point favorites at home. Atlanta has now covered in five of its last six games with the total going OVER in the last eight outings.

Veteran gunslinger Matt Ryan performed so well all season long that he is the odds-on favorite to be named league MVP. He threw for 392 yards and four touchdowns in Sunday’s win. Julio Jones endured some bumps along the way, but any question marks concerning a nagging foot injury were quickly dispelled with nine catches for 180 yards and two scores against the Packers. The most impressive aspect of Sunday’s NFC title game romp was a Falcons’ defense that found a way to stop Aaron Rodgers. Green Bay’s potent offensive attack was held to 367 total yards.

New England vs. Atlanta Game Betting Trends

  • The Patriots are 5-1 ATS in their last six postseason games, but they have failed to cover in four of their last five Super Bowls. The total has gone OVER in six of their last seven games in the playoffs.
  • The Falcons are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games in the postseason, but they improve to 6-2 ATS in their last eight games against a team with a SU winning record. The total has gone OVER in their last four playoff games.
  • Past betting trends between the two favor the underdog with a 4-1 record ATS in the last five meetings. The total has gone OVER in four of the last six games between the two including New England’s 30-23 victory in 2013 as a three-point road underdog the last time they met.

New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons Prediction

The big question any bettor has to ask themselves in this matchup is will the game be a case of “unfinished business” against “happy to be here” or can both teams play to the level of their capabilities. Atlanta can beat New England SU on a neutral field, but this works to really test your confidence level when it comes to the Falcons actually getting it done.

I will be the first one to admit just how stunned I was with how easy Atlanta disposed of Green Bay in the NFC Championship, but getting past New England with everything on the line is a whole other story. I decided to jump all over the Patriots as three point favorites in a spread that is very likely to widen two weeks from now when this game is actually played.

Free Pick: 
Take the Patriots -3

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