Houston Texans at New England Patriots Odds Analysis - Pick to Bet
Texans at Patriots Game Overview
Houston defeated Oakland 27-14 last Saturday in the Wild Card Round. New England had a bye last week. The Patriots won the Week 3 matchup 27-0.
The Texans were pretty mediocre on offense last week and didn’t show much in the earlier encounter. QB Brock Osweiler will get his 2nd-straight start and was average last week (14-25 for 168 yards and a TD). Despite being 6’8”, he just doesn’t seem to see the whole field very well. He wasn’t sacked last week but faces a defense this week that will show him many different blitz packages. He hasn’t shown he can remain poised in the pocket and had a poor 15-16 TD/INT ratio on the season. Pats HC Bill Belichick and DC Matt Patricia know Houston wants to run the ball with RB Lamar Miller to take the pressure off of Osweiler but the Texans didn’t do a good job against a Raiders defense (44-123-2.8 ypc) that isn’t as good as New England’s. I expect Miller to see several 8-man fronts and to find the going very tough this week. WR DeAndre Hopkins caught a TD pass last week but didn’t mesh with Osweiler during the season. The Patriots’ pass defense, long a bugaboo, allowed 21 TD passes in 2016 but picked off 13 passes, a very good set of numbers in today’s NFL.
Patriots' QB Tom Brady finished the year with an unworldly 28-2 TD/INT ratio, breaking the record previously held by...Nick Foles (27-2). To say he has been playing at an elite level is an understatement. Even with the loss of TE Rob Gronkowski, Brady has been able to move the team through the air. WR Julian Edelman had a big year (98-1,106-3) and TE Martellus Bennett, WR Chris Hogan and RB James White also had productive years. The late arrival of WR Michael Floyd should pay dividends as well. Houston shut down Oakland rookie QB Connor Cook last week but Brady is a totally different animal. The Texans were very good in pass defense throughout the year (201.6 ypg) and they have 2 solid CBs in veteran Johnathan Joseph and youngster A.J. Bouye. They can also rush the passer but the Pats’ o-line has played much better in 2016 than they did in 2015. The o-line has had the same starters for the past 11 games and their pass blocking has been excellent. However, they do have to deal with OLBs Whitney Mercilus and Jadeveon Clowney this week and both players wreaked havoc last Saturday. RB LeGarrette Blount led the league with 18 rushing TDs and eclipsed 1,000 yards rushing for only the second time in his career. New England isn’t afraid to run the ball but Houston allowed 99.7 ypg on the ground and won’t be a turnstile. I expect the Patriots to mix it up early with the run and pass and then stick with what is working best.
Houston at New England Betting Trends
The Patriots are 7-1 straight up in their eight matches against the Texans and a bankroll boosting 6-2 against the spread.
Bettors wagering on the OVER have cashed in on six of the eight games in this series.
The Texans are a profitable 8-5 in conference games, but only 2-4 as a visitor.
The Patriots are 11-1 against AFC teams this season including 6-0 at home.
Depending on where you get your odds the Patriots opened as a -15.5 or -16 point spread favorite and that hasn’t held or dropped to -15 against the 72% public action. The total line hit the odds board at 44.5 and that remains the consensus line in direct contrast to the 71% of the bets on the OVER.
Houston Texans at New England Patriots Prediction
Houston’s defense played well last week and set up the offense with advantageous field position. I think they can stay with the Patriots offense (to a degree) and will make Brady work for everything he gets. I don’t have confidence that Osweiler will be able to solve the New England defense and therefore believe the Under is the way to go in this one. The Texans have been under the number in their last 7 games and 9 of their last 10. Four of the last 6 Patriots games have also been under the number. I fully expect NE to win this game but 16 points scares me. I do like the fact that both defenses are amongst the league’s best and see them having a major say in how this game turns out.