Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys Odds Analysis - Free Pick ATS

Date: 
January 15, 4:40 PM EST
Location:
TV:

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
Dallas -4.5
Total: 
52

Betting Overview

Green Bay overwhelmed the Giants 38-13 last Sunday. Dallas had a bye last weekend. The Cowboys whipped the Packers 30-16 at Green Bay in Week 6.

The Packers got another huge game from QB Aaron Rodgers last week (362 yards, 4 TD passes) as he is playing the best football of his career right now. Over the past 7 games he has tossed 19 TD passes, thrown for 2,029 yards, completed 69.6% of his passes and hasn’t thrown an interception. He also has 4 TD passes in each of his past 3 games. Dallas yielded 260.4 ypg through the air this season and while some of that was based on teams playing catchup, they only picked off 9 passes while surrendering 25 TD throws. WR Jordy Nelson (cracked ribs) isn’t expected to play this week but the Pack got a nice boost with the return of WR Randall Cobb last week (5-116-3). WRs Davante Adams and rookie Geronimo Allison are good targets while role players TE Jared Cook and FB Aaron Ripkowski have also stepped up their play in recent weeks. Dallas played good run defense this season (83.5 ypg, 3.9 ypc) but again, some of that is because teams were playing from behind. WR-RB Ty Montgomery has given Green Bay at least the threat of the run and RB Christine Michael ran hard against the Giants while Montgomery was briefly out of the game. Dallas DE David Irving had a huge game in the first matchup (3 forced fumbles, one recovered fumble and one sack) and finished the season strong. LT David Bakhtiari and RT Bryan Bulaga have to neutralize Irving and the rest of the Cowboys’ pass rushers as they upped their game late in the season.

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Dallas will try to do this week what they have done all season: control the game with the run. Rookie RB Ezekiel Elliott won the rushing title with 1,631 yards and also ran it in 14 times. He had a great game at Lambeau Field earlier in the year (157 rushing yards). He also runs behind 3 first-team all-pros (LT Tyron Smith, C Travis Frederick, RG Zack Martin) and the Packers have to play better run defense than they did in October and the latter half of the season. I expect them to overplay the run early and force rookie QB Dak Prescott to show he can beat them consistently down the field. He’ll be looking in WR Dez Bryant’s direction as he is likely to be matched up with 2nd-year, former undrafted rookie CB LaDarius Gunter. The youngster held up well vs. WR Odell Beckham Jr. last week (4-28) but Beckham did drop a TD pass as well as some other catchable balls. Gunter will get safety help like he did last week. WR Cole Beasley led Dallas with 75 receptions and 833 yards receiving and the ageless TE Jason Witten remains a viable target. The Packers had 40 sacks this season and can get after the QB while the Cowboys gave up 28 sacks. The Green Bay defenders, like LBs Clay Matthews and Julius Peppers, have to do a good job of getting to Prescott and to keep him from making big plays with his feet (282 rushing yards, 6 TDs).

Packers at Dallas Betting Trends

The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay's last 5 games and the total has gone OVER in 9 of the Packers last 10 games when playing on the road against the Cowboys.

Green Bay is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Dallas

Dallas is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games, but are a bankroll depleting 1-5 against the spread in their last six games.

At home the against the spread numbers for Dallas hasn't been profitable' going 7-12-2 versus the nubmer in its last 21 games at AT&T Stadium.

Public Money

The public is siding with the Packers in this game with over 60% of the point spread bets coming in on Green Bay. The total for this game opened on the board at 52 at many of the sportsbooks and has held at the number despite the public’s high action 70% on the OVER.

Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys Prediction

This game is yet another rematch as all 4 divisional encounters are rematches from earlier in the year. I dare say this Packers club is a much better group than the one Dallas saw several months ago. Rodgers is playing out of his mind while the defense has allowed an average of 18 ppg during their current 7-game winning streak. Green Bay has also played well against teams that qualified for the playoffs this season (5-1-1 ATS, their lone loss to Dallas) and has basically been playing playoff-calibre football for the last 2 months. The Cowboys were one of the 2 best teams in the NFL this season (along with the Patriots) and are looking to break a 20-year pattern of poor playoff performances (2-8 SU since 1996). Elliott and Prescott were spectacular during the season but they are still rookies and have had 2 weeks to think about this game. I don’t expect either player to be overcome with the jitters but playoff football is a different animal. I’m going to take the points and Rodgers and think Green Bay can keep this game close or win it outright.

Free Pick: 
Take the Packers +4.5

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