Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons Point Spread - Pick to Bet ATS

Date: 
January 22, 3:05 PM EST
Location:
TV:

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
Falcons -4
Total: 
60

A trip to Super Bowl LI from the NFC is on the line this Sunday afternoon at the Georgia Dome in a showdown between the 12-6 Green Bay Packers and the 12-5 Atlanta Falcons. Kickoff for this season’s NFC Championship is set for 3:05 p.m. (ET) and the game will be broadcast nationally on FOX.

Green Bay at Atlanta Game Overview

Green Bay needed every second of all four quarters to get past Dallas 34-31 as a five-point road underdog in Saturday’s Divisional Round matchup after making short work of another NFC East team in a 38-13 romp over the New York Giants in the Wild Card Round as a five-point favorite at home. Both playoff victories extended the Packers’ straight-up winning streak to eight games and they have gone a highly profitable 7-1 against the spread during this run. The total has now gone OVER in their last six games.

Aaron Rodgers has always been one of the best veteran quarterbacks in the league at Green Bay, but has been able to take his game to a whole new level in recent weeks. Going back over the Packers last six games, he has helped this offense average 34.8 points a game. He threw for 362 yards and four touchdowns against the Giants before racking up 356 yards and two scores through the air against Dallas. His top target at wide receiver is Jordy Nelson; however he remains questionable for Sunday after missing last week’s game with a rib injury.

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Atlanta finished its regular season on a strong note with four SU wins while going 3-1 ATS. It extended that winning streak to five with an impressive 36-20 victory against Seattle as a 6.5-point home favorite in the other Divisional Round matchup in the NFC. Going back over the Falcons’ last five games, they are averaging 38 points a game. The total has now gone OVER in 15 of 17 games this year.

You could also credit veteran quarterback Matt Ryan with much of Atlanta’s success on offense this season. The threw for the second-most yards in the league (4,944) and his 38 touchdown passes were second only to Rodgers (40) in the NFL. In this past Saturday’s victory, Ryan torched the Seahawks’ vaunted defensive secondary for 338 passing yards and three touchdowns while completing at least one pass to eight different players. His top target, Julio Jones left that game with a foot injury but it does not appear to be serious enough to keep him out of this Sunday’s game.

Green Bay at Atlanta Game Betting Trends

The Packers have covered ATS in their last five playoff games and they are 4-1 ATS in their last five NFC title games. The total has gone OVER in four of those last five games played in the postseason.

The Falcons are 1-6 ATS in their last seven playoff games overall and they have failed to cover in five of their last seven postseason games at home. The has gone OVER in their last six home games in the playoffs.

Head-to-head in this match-up, the road team has covered the spread in the last five meetings including Green Bay’s 33-32 loss to Atlanta on Oct. 30 as a three-point underdog on the road. The total went way OVER the closing 51-point line in that game and it has gone OVER in three of the last five meetings.

Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons Prediction

This is a dream matchup between two of the top passing quarterbacks in the league. While it looks like Green Bay will still be without Nelson for Sunday afternoon, Rodgers has already proved that he can get the ball to a number of different targets. Atlanta does appear to be all that concerned about Jones’ foot injury, so its potent passing game should remain at full strength.

 

It is rare to see such a high total line (60 points) for a NFL game, but the bookmakers had to set it that high to try and move some money towards the UNDER. I am not biting on that one with a “best bet” play on the OVER all the way.

Free Pick: 
Take the OVER -DS

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