NFL FOOTBALL PICKS ATS - FREE WEEKLY EXPERT PREDICTIONS

Philadelphia is the better team in this match-up and should win this game. The Eagles own the No. 1 offense in the League and the No. 5 defense. Jacksonville, meanwhile, is a nice story at the moment and seems headed in a good direction. But asking this young Jaguars team to get up for another even bigger road game a week after the win at the Chargers might be asking too much. We’re giving the points here with Philly.

Miami’s 3-0 on the season but could easily be 1-2; Cincinnati’s 1-2 but should be 2-1. Also, the Bengals actually own the better running game in this match-up, when they choose to run the ball, and the better defense. Also, Cincinnati is 5-2 ATS since Burrow arrived when favored by less than a touchdown. We don’t usually like going along with the betting flow, but we’re betting the Bengals Thursday night.    

Cleveland owns a big checkmark in the comparison of the running games and the better defense. And in the NFL, teams that win the ground battles cover the spread about 65 percent of the time. Also, Brissett actually looked pretty good last week, while Trubisky looks iffy. We’re betting the Brownies Thursday night, minus the points.

The quarterbacks get all the ink heading into this game but what really matters is Kansas City owns the better running game and the better run defense. And teams that win the ground battles in the NFL cover the spread about 65 percent of the time. Also, the Chiefs sure didn’t seem to miss WR Hill last week, racking up almost 500 yards of offense, and Mahomes is 2-1 against Herbert. This should be another close game, but we like KC, minus the points.

Dallas owns the better running game in this match-up, and its quarterback is 16 years younger than Tampa's. And we expect even more improvement from the Cowboys' defense this season. The Bucs, meanwhile, downgraded at head coach, and we just don't like the idea of an old man playing QB. Dallas nearly beat the Bucs last year, and we think they'll do it this time. We're betting the Cowboys here for the win on the money line at a price of +120. 

The Rams are the defending champs but the Bills, heading into Thursday night, are the better team. Buffalo’s got the better run game and the better defense, and that’s where we like to put our money. The Bills lost their season opener last year and they’d like to avoid that kind of start this season. We like Buffalo for Thursday night, minus the points.  

Motivation means almost everything when it comes to winning NFL exhibition games, and Carolina should be the more motivated team in this spot. HC Rhule finds himself on a hot seat heading into this season and needs to instill some good vibes into his team. Also, he has to get a quarterback in place. New England, meanwhile, is the much more settled team and probably more interested in just avoiding any injuries this preseason than winning games. We'll take the Panthers here for the win at +140 on the money line.

Both these teams are under new head coaches, but Las Vegas is the more established outfit at the moment. The Raiders made the playoffs last year and are expected to contend for the playoffs this season. Therefore our guess is Vegas probably cares more about avoiding injuries this exhibition season than winning games. Minnesota, meanwhile, has more holes to fill and might try to use this preseason to create a winning atmosphere. Motivation means a ton in exhibition games, and we believe the Vikings are the more motivated team in this spot. We’ll take the Vikes and the points.

San Francisco owns the better running game in this match-up and the better defense, and to us, that’s what playoff football is all about. Also, the 49ers just seem to own the Rams over recent seasons. Also, both these teams just played games last week that came down to field goals, and we won’t be at all surprised if that happens again Sunday. And that’s where 3.5 points would come in really handy. So we like the Niners here, plus the points. They might not even need‘em.

The best unit on the field Sunday will be the Chiefs offense, with those weapons capable of creating big yardage on any given play. And we don't like the way Cincinnati is running the ball as of late. Also, KC had the Bengals down two scores in the second half about a month ago before giving it way, and we just don't believe they'd let something like that happen again. Also, while the home-field advantage is as low as we can remember - Sagarin's got it at 1.6 points - Arrowhead is a little different and probably worth more. And home favorites own a pretty good betting record over recent conference championship games. So we're giving the points here with Kansas City.  

Tennessee, even with Henry missing half the season, out-rushed opponents by 56 yards per game while Cincinnati came in at +0. And teams that win the

  ground battles in the NFL cover the spread about 65 percent of the time. Also, the Titans are a

  bit more playoff-tested than the Bengals; this will be their fifth playoff game over the last

  three seasons with Coach Vrabel and QB Tannehill, while for Cincinnati, it’s just their second

  game with Coach Taylor and QB Burrow. So while we don’t like going along with the betting flow,

  we like Tennessee here.

The best unit on the field Sunday night will be the Kansas City offense. Also, while the Chiefs come in at -2 yards per game total rushing Pittsburgh comes in at -53, and that’s not good for playoff football. Also, KC owns the much better record against playoff qualifiers. Also, the Chiefs just kicked the Steelers three weeks ago. They might not win this one by four touchdowns but two would be enough. We’re giving the points here with Kansas City.

New England runs the ball with its running backs while Buffalo relies heavily on QB Allen. We prefer the Patriots’ way. Also, New England ran the ball down the Bills’ throat in bad weather in that first meeting this season and conditions ain’t supposed to be great Saturday night in Buffalo. Also, following an off-performance last week in Miami we expect better from the Patriots here. We just see this game as something around 20-17 and four points might come in real handy. So we’re taking those points with Belichick’s boys.  

We love that Cincinnati offense when RB Joe Mixon is getting touches. Back in that meeting earlier this season between these teams Mixon ran the ball 30 times for 123 yards and two touch-downs, including a late 20-yard spurt that iced the game. The Bengals out-played Las Vegas that day and we expect more of the same Saturday. Also, following that huge emotional win last week we won’t be surprised if the Raiders suffer a letdown this week. So we’re betting Cincinnati here, minus the points.   

I like both angles here around the match-up on paper and the "effort" narrative. Take Tampa Bay -8.5.

I'm not so sure what to expect from the Seahawks this week. Last week at home might have been their final spurt. Doing it against Detroit at home is different from making it work against an Arizona team trying to win its division, improve their playoff standing, and create some momentum for the playoffs. I'd expect a high-energy output from the Cardinals as they cruise home the winners and cover the spread. I'll take the Cardinals this week.

Kansas City is still playing for the No. 1 seed in the AFC while Denver, well, we're not sure what they're playing for. Also, the Chiefs basically got outplayed by the Broncos a month ago, but we don't think that will happen this time. And after blowing last week's game, we expect a rebound effort from KC here. So we're giving the points with the Chiefs.  

The Steelers are the kind of team that can regularly buck their form in a one-game window. At home, with big stakes against a Cleveland team that is wholly unreliable would appear to be one of those spots. It's just hard to see them getting through 60 minutes with a desperate Cleveland team with those shortcomings not manifesting. The sometimes-dysfunctional depths that this Browns' offense can sink to is a concern, as is the possibility that Roethlisberger just manages to somehow find some answers, but I see the respective calibers of each team's run-game/run-defense surfacing, as the Browns get to the finish line ahead. I'll take the Browns.