Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs Lines - NFL Pick Against the Spread

Date: 
December 25, 8:25 PM EST
Location:
TV:

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
Kansas City -4
Total: 
38

The final Sunday night matchup of the 2016 NFL regular season should be a good one with the 8-6 Denver Broncos going on the road to face the 10-4 Kansas City Chiefs in what could be a must win for each of these AFC West rivals. Kickoff is set for 8:30 p.m. (ET) and the game will be broadcast nationally on NBC.

Denver at Kansas City Game Overview

The Broncos’ backs are against the wall as far as a return trip to the postseason following last Sunday’s 16-3 loss to New England as three-point road underdogs. They have now lost three of their last four games both straight-up and against the spread. The total stayed way UNDER the 42.5-point closing line in that loss and it has stayed UNDER in four of their last five games. Denver is an even 3-3 ATS when closing as an underdog this season.

Denver’s rapidly fading playoff hopes can be pinned to a severe lack of production on offense with a grand total of just 33 points in its last three games. Trevor Siemian completed 25-of-40 passing attempts for 282 yards against New England, but he could not get his team into the end zone. The Broncos’ anemic ground game added just 58 rushing yards to the losing effort. Their only chance in this one is to keep playing shutdown defense behind the fourth-ranked unit in the league in points allowed (18.4).

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Kansas City did not help its AFC West Division title chances with a 19-17 loss to Tennessee in Week 15 as a six-point home favorite. This loss snapped a three-game winning streak both SU and ATS. The total stayed UNDER 42.5 points against the Titans and it has stayed UNDER In eight of the Chiefs last nine games. They come into this matchup with a 4-5 record ATS this season when closing as favorites.

The Chiefs’ costly loss to Tennessee will probably relegate them to taking the wild card route in the playoffs, but they still have an outside shot at the AFC West title with the season sweep over the 11-3 Oakland Raiders. That motivation alone could be enough to carry them in this game. Kansas City hardly ever wins pretty, but it still does enough on offense behind quarterback Alex Smith and running back Spencer Ware. This is another team that relies heavily on a defense that is ranked 28th in the NFL in yards allowed (375.1), but eighth in points allowed (19.6).

Denver at Kansas City Game Betting Trends

  • Broncos have won 10 of their last 15 road games SU and they have covered ATS in four of their first seven road games this season. The total has stayed UNDER in five of their last six games on the road.
  • The Chiefs are 11-2 SU in their last 13 games played at home, but they have failed to cover in five of seven home games this year. The total has stayed UNDER in 10 of 14 games this season including their last five at home.
  • Head-to-head in this division tilt, Denver has won its last five road games against the Chiefs SU and it has a 6-1 record ATS in its last seven trips to Arrowhead. Kansas City won the first meeting this season 30-27 as a 3.5-point road underdog and the total went OVER the 40-point closing line. It has stayed UNDER in four of the last six meetings in Kansas City.

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs Prediction

This matchup is shaping up to be another low-scoring grinder between two teams that will simply try and outlast one another. Weather is not expected to be a major factor with milder temperatures forecast for Christmas night, but it is still easy to see why the total line has been set so low for this game.

I am going to default to the better overall team playing at home as my rational for betting on the Chiefs to win and cover the four points on Sunday night.

Free Pick: 
Take Kansas City -4

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