2016 NFL Win Total Odds

David Schwab

One of the most popular NFL props to bet on heading into a new season of football is the “Over/Under” on projected win totals for all 32 teams. BetOnline has recently updated its money line odds for betting either the OVER of the UNDER for every NFL team with the start of training camp right around the corner.

A new season of NFL betting action on the actual games is less than two months away making it a great time to try and find the best value in the money line odds for the OVER and UNDER on each team’s projected total regular season wins in 2016. BetOnline has recently updated its odds and my job is to find the best value in the numbers.

NFC Win Total Odds

The Green Bay Packers and the Seattle Seahawks top the list in the NFC with a projected win total of 10.5 games. The money line on the Packers favors the OVER at -170 with the UNDER listed at +140. The current money on Seattle is also favoring the OVER at -140 with the money line set at +110 for a play on the UNDER.

This will be Mike McCarthy’s 11th season at the helm as Green Bay’s head coach and during his tenure with the Packers they have eclipsed the 10-win plateau five times. Last season they faded down the stretch to finish second to Minnesota at 10-6. The Vikings went 11-5 in 2015 and their win total is set at 9.5 with a -130 money line favoring the OVER.

Green Bay still has quite a bit of talent still in place on both sides of the ball including Aaron Rodgers at quarterback so you know that the motivation level to get back on top in the NFC North will be high. The added risk on the money line odds is a bit high, but I would still go with the OVER in this prop with the Packers getting to at least 11-5.

Pete Carrol has been the head coach in Seattle for six years and he has led his team to 10 or more wins the last four seasons. The Seahawks took a slight step backwards to 10-6 last season after going 12-4 in 2014. They play in the NFC West where the win total for Arizona has been set at 10 wins with the money line odds favoring the OVER at -150.

I only see one of these teams posting more than 10 wins this season in what should be another heated race to a division title. I would have to give the slight edge to the Cardinals right now, but I would probably stay away from a win total prop bet pick for either team.

If you are looking for a solid play on an UNDER in the NFC, I would go with the -130 odds on Dallas at 9.5. The NFC East probably has the closest parity of any division in the NFL and I cannot see any of the four teams winning more than nine games this year.

AFC Win Total Odds

It is no big surprise that New England is at the top of the list in this conference at 10.5 wins, but I was a bit shocked to see Pittsburgh’s total also listed at 10.5. The current money line favors the OVER for the Patriots at -130 with +100 even money odds for the UNDER. The Steelers have a -120 money line on the OVER and a -110 line for the UNDER.

Bill Belichick is the longest tenured head coach in the NFL with the same team and in his 16 seasons in New England his Patriots have won 11 games or more 12 times. They have posted 12-4 records the past four seasons after going 13-3 in 2011. The big question is how will quarterback Tom Brady’s four-game suspension effect the team. It might cost the Patriots a game or two, but I would still go with the OVER in this prop given the consistent track record of this team.

Betting on Pittsburgh to win more than 10 games carries a much greater risk given the competitive nature of the AFC North. Cincinnati is still a threat to win the division with a win total projection of 9.5 and a -140 money line favoring the OVER and Baltimore has a good chance of exceeding its eight-win projection with a -140 money line favoring the OVER.

My top play in the AFC is the OVER 7.5 wins for Jacksonville at -130 betting odds. The Jaguars have been quietly stockpiling talent on both sides of the ball for the past few seasons as a result of having high draft picks. Head coach Gus Bradley is already on the hot seat after three-straight seasons of five or fewer wins and I think his team responds with at least eight wins in an AFC South Division race that should remain pretty wide open all season long.

The handicapping and sports wagering information contained on this website is for entertainment purposes only. Please verify the gambling laws and regulations in your jurisdiction as they vary from state to state and country to country. Use of this information in contravention of any law is prohibited. In particular, citizens of Illinois, Indiana, Louisiana, Washington State, Oregon, Nevada, Montana and South Dakota should learn the various laws on online gaming, as laws in each state may relate to participants, advertisers or those involved in the business of gaming.