2016 NFL QB Passing Yards Over-Under Prop Bets
Team and player props are a great way to add even more action to a new season of football in the NFL and in this week’s Top Prop Picks I have broken down the betting odds at Bet365 for my top three plays for the “over/under” on quarterback passing yards.
Aaron Rodgers will be entering his ninth season as the Green Bay Packers starting quarterback after spending his first three seasons living in the shadow of Hall of Famer Brett Favre. Since taking over that role he has consistently been one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL having won the league’s MVP award in both 2011 and 2014.
Rodgers has started all 16 games in five separate seasons and his average passing yards were 4,194. His betting odds on 4270.5 total passing yards this season have been set at 5/6 for both the OVER and the UNDER.
When he was named the league’s MVP in 2014, Rodgers total passing yards were 4,381 and the Packers ended that season with a record of 12-4. Last year, Green Bay went 6-0 to start the season before stumbling to a record of 10-6. Rodgers ended that season with 3,821 passing yards after failing to throw for more than 220 yards in three of his last four games.
I am high on the Packers’ chances to win the NFC this season on the throwing arm of Rodgers. Last season’s collapse down the stretch cannot be sitting well with one of the most competitive players in the NFL so I am going with the OVER in this prop.
Andrew Luck has taken the NFL by storm ever since came out of Stanford as the top pick of the 2012 draft. He started all 16 games as a rookie with Indianapolis and ended the season with 4,374 total passing yards. The following season he threw for 3,822 yards and in 2014 this number climbed to 4,761 yards in his finest season to date as a pro.
After starting every game in his first three seasons, Luck was only under center for seven games in 2015 due to injuries and his total passing yards dropped to 1.881, which was still an average of 269 yards a game. His betting odds to go OVER 4250.5 passing yards in 2016 have been set at 4/5 with 10/11 odds that his actual total passing yards stay UNDER.
Luck remains one of the top young guns in the NFL and you know he will be trying to make up for lost time after the Colts fell to 8-8 last season in his absence. Prior to that, he led his team to an 11-5 record in each of his first three years in the league.
With a career average of 270 passing yards a game, I am going with the OVER in this prop on the assumption that Luck stays healthy and starts all 16 games.
Big Ben will be entering his 13th NFL season and his Pittsburgh Steelers are being hyped as one of the top contenders to win the Super Bowl this year. The Steelers went 10-6 last season and bowed out of the playoffs in the Divisional Round with a loss to Denver. Going back to 2004, Pittsburgh has made the postseason in eight the 12 seasons that he has been the team’s starting quarterback.
Roethlisberger threw for 3,938 total yards in 11 starts last year for an average of 358 yards a game. The year before he started all 16 games and threw for a total of 4,952 yards. The betting odds that he goes OVER 4620.5 passing yards this season are set at 8/11 and the UNDER for this prop is even money at 1/1.
There is no doubt that Pittsburgh’s game plan is to move the ball down the field through the air with a passing offense that was ranked third in the NFL last season with an average of 288 yards per game. The Steelers have one of the best pass catchers in the game in Antonio Brown and their entire receiving corps runs deep in talent.
My concern is Roethlisberger’s ability to stay healthy for all 16 games. His hard-nosed style of play combined with the wear and tear of playing 12 years in this league makes this less probable than it used to be. I believe this sets up an opportunity for a play on the UNDER in this prop given the more favorable betting odds.
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