2014 Super Bowl Against the Point Spread Pick
The NFL season comes down to one final matchup on Sunday, Feb. 3 in Super Bowl XLVIII between the NFC Champion Seattle Seahawks and the top team in the AFC, the Denver Broncos. Kickoff from MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey is set for 6:25 p.m. (ET) and the game will be broadcast nationally on FOX.
Point Spread: Denver -2.5
Game Total Line: 47.5
Seattle was most sportsbooks' top favorite to win the NFC before the new NFL season began and it held true to form with a straight-up record of 13-3 that earned the No. 1 seed for the playoffs. From there, the Seahawks beat New Orleans 23-15 in the divisional round as eight-point home favorites before taking down San Francisco 23-17 as four-point favorites at home in the conference title game. The total stayed UNDER in both of those games and it has now stayed UNDER in Seattle's last seven games.
To complete the run to a world title, the Seahawks will need one more stellar effort from Marshawn Lynch running the ball and the top defense in the league. Lynch has almost been unstoppable in the postseason with 249 yards rushing and three touchdowns on 50 carries for an average of five yards an attempt. Seattle's defense finished the regular season ranked first in the NFL against the pass as well as total yards (273.6) and points (14.4) a game. It held the 49ers to 308 total yards including just 147 yards through the air.
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The Broncos looked impressive in their 26-16 victory over New England in the AFC title game as five-point home favorites. They built a 20-3 lead after three quarters of play and then sealed the deal on a Matt Prater 54-yard field goal with seven minutes left in the game. Denver has now covered in five of their last seven games and the total has stayed UNDER in its last five outings.
While most experts will want to focus on the play of Peyton Manning in this matchup and for good reason given the numbers that the future NFL Hall of Fame quarterback put up this season, but Denver's running game and defensive front seven could be the real keys to bringing home the team's first Super Bowl title since the 1998 season. The ground game is led by Knowshon Moreno and Montee Ball. These two combined for 102 yards on 26 carries against the Patriots after gaining 134 yards on 33 attempts in a 24-17 win against San Diego as an eight-point favorite at home the week before. Denver's defense is not on the same level as Seattle's, but it kept Tom Brady under wraps for most of the day in this past Sunday's win.
Seattle vs. Denver Betting Trends
The Seahawks are 18-7 ATS in their last 25 games following a SU win and 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games against a team with a SU winning record. The total has stayed UNDER in their last six games against a team with a winning record SU.
The Broncos have covered in just three of their last 10 postseason games and they are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games played on fieldturf. The total has gone OVER in 24 of their last 31 games against a team with a SU winning record.
Head-to-head in this series, Denver is 7-1 SU in the last eight meetings with a 5-3 edge ATS. The total has gone OVER in six of those eight games.
Point Spread Pick
This game will come down to a test of wills between a Denver offense that is ranked first in the NFL in scoring going up against the No. 1 defense in the league in points allowed. Something has to give and I am banking on the Seahawks getting the job done SU behind the simple theory that defense still wins championships.
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