College Football Picks - Free Weekly ATS Predictions
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I mentioned last week how poor the Duke defense is when facing a team with a balanced attack and that rung true as they found themselves on the wrong side of a 66-31 spanking. They meet another team with a balanced offense this week and while I don't think we'll see the same type of margin I do believe that the Panthers can win this game. The points are a bonus.
The Trojans have been going deep into the depth chart trying to find someone who can play center having lost their first string C Max Tuerk for the season in the Washington game and a very solid Toa Lobendahn who was moved from a starting guard to center to replace Tuerk in The Utah game. Their offense just hasn't looked the same in their two matches since and they certainly weren't facing top level defenses with California ranking 80th and Arizona 103rd in scoring defense winning by 8 and 6 points. This isn't a team that should be favored by 16.5 points on the road. The weather also might be a problem for USC with temperatures in the low 30's expected at kickoff.
These two teams may be somewhat close in the standings, but they are not all that close on the field. While Miami has still been inconsistent at times, the Tar Heels are solid right across the board. Lay the 12.5 points in this one as North Carolina rolls to another big win while covering the spread.
The underdog has been a solid bet in this matchup and I like the Hokies chances to keep this trend going in Saturday's game with the extra half-point on the current spread. I also like the UNDER in this game as long as it opens around 41 or 42. Neither of these teams have been playing all that well this season on offense and things should remain tight right down to the wire in a three-point game either way.
The numbers for both teams seem about even with the Tar Heels having a small edge offensively and the Blue Devils having the edge defensively. However, once you break down Duke's schedule it becomes obvious that their opponent's in the first six games were one dimensional on offense. In the first six games they faced Army ranked 126th in passing yards per game, Boston College 124, Georgia Tech 121 and Tulane 91 allowing them to focus stopping the run. Once they faced teams with some sort of balance on offense in Miami and Virginia Tech they were torched for 73 points. The line is a lot higher than I like playing, but UNC at home against FBS opponents has won all by 34, 36 and 7 points, so it's not like they can't extend the margin.