College Football Picks - Free Weekly ATS Predictions
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A remarkable 93% of the public is on the Tigers and willing to spot the points. The line has moved 2.5 points since open and it is not imperceptible to assume the Red Wolves may find themselves given three touchdowns in this one. When at Jordan-Hare, the Tigers are almost always an overvalued team. Previous to their result against Clemson on Saturday, the Tigers have covered just one time in their last five home games and this cover was by the incremental margin of half-a-point when they lost to Mississippi 27-19 in October of 2015. Arkansas State cannot be written off due to one poor outing in Week One, this is the same team that started 1-3 in 2015 and marked off eight in a row to catapult them to the New Orleans Bowl. With the continuous steam rolling in on the Red Wolves, players may find themselves with more breathing room than anticipated by kick-off and given the fact this is the same Auburn team that almost lost to Jacksonville State at home last year, anything is possible.
Both teams showed the ability to move the ball downfield against an outmatched defense in their season opener, but in this matchup Louisville has just too much firepower behind Jackson at quarterback.
Laying double-digit points in a conference matchup on the road does come with some degree of risk early in the season, but the Cardinals are at the top of the food chain in the ACC against a Syracuse team that is still a couple a seasons away from being competitive as this level. Take the Cardinals to win both SU and ATS on Friday night as my “best bet” pick in this game.
The Seminoles have 11 starters returning on offense, but the one new face is at QB with Frs Deondre Francois taking over behind center. In front of him there are some question marks with LG Kareem Are expected to miss and possibly starting center Alec Eberle. The good news is that he’ll be facing the Rebels defense that will have two new starters at corner and if RB Dalvin Cook can roll they’ll be some opportunities to exploit with play action (think Florida vs. Ole Miss LY). This should feel like a home game for the Seminoles - lay the points.
I know that it’s difficult to lay points on a team that averaged 17 points per game at home last season, but that’s where my money will be landing tonight. Vandy returns 8 starters to their offense and might have some success against the Gamecocks who return only 5 starters. South Carolina was hot and cold last season holding UNC to 13 points but getting lit up by Georgia for 52. On the offensive side of the ball the Gamecocks returns just 4 starters and will have a new head coach in Will Muschamp and an unsettled QB situation. Vandy’s defense for was strong for the most part holding 7 of 11 of their opponents to under 20 points per game including 19 to South Carolina and return seven starters from last season’s unit. Lay the points.
An astounding 89% of the public is on Tennessee and willing to spot the points, opening up a scenario where a contrarian approach may be paramount. The hoopla surrounding Tennessee is enough to stir a frenzy and cause many takers to jump at any price. It’s hard to imagine Tennessee winning this game decisively when they have failed to put teams away when they had the chance all over 2015.
As we have championed previously, the Vols have encountered several occasions where they were on their way to a win and yet they found a way to blow double-digit leads. Appalachian State is a good enough team that if you let them hang around they will certainly be a problem. The Mountaineers’ latest rendition of this narrative in this form came in the Camellia Bowl when they came from behind to defeat Ohio. 96% of the money is leaning on the over which on the contrary may be positioned to be a hazardous investment considering both teams are methodical in rushing the football as the enjoy ball possession. Furthermore, both Tennessee and Appalachian State despite having the potential to piece together eruptive offensive performances are teams that enjoy playing defensive-oriented football, thus making this game all the more likely to be low scoring.
If Oklahoma’s most recent performance against Clemson is any barometer of how the Sooners will fare against offenses of Houston’s caliber, this may in fact be a long day at the offense for OU. Greg Ward, Jr is as every bit as lethal as Dashaun Watson. Watson absolutely chewed up the Oklahoma defense and if this game were to evolve to a shootout, the edge lies with Houston.
The academic move in any shootout is to take a team taking back more than a touchdown. Houston is being given more than a touchdown and a field goal and yet the audience will simply down that glass of juice like it’s a tasty beverage. Bottom line, Houston has the playmaker and Oklahoma has the hype, setting up a perfect value play to buy a thirteen-game winner with a friendly amount of points. Oklahoma may actually lose this game outright, they don’t utilize their rushers in the right way and they have struggled mightily against any form of potent offense in 2015, even if they came out with the W at the end.
This should be a great matchup between two teams looking to make a run at winning their conference title this season. Both of these offenses should be able to move the ball down the field behind their running game, but I give the overall edge to Georgia behind a stout defense that knows how to keep opposing teams out of the end zone.
Even though this game will be played at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta as opposed to the Bulldogs’ home stadium in Athens, they will also have a slight advantage playing at this venue with the majority of the crowd firmly on their side. Lay the 2.5 points in this one and take Georgia to win both SU and ATS.
Laying a 39.5-point spread right out of the gate always comes with some level of risk despite the huge disparity of talent in this mismatch. Louisville should be able to win this game by six touchdowns, but that does mean it will.
The Cardinals could build a huge lead early and then rest their starters in the second half so I would stay away from a play on a side in this game. My “best bet” pick would be the OVER on the 59-point total line since Louisville could easily put up that many points on its own.
When you factor in the sex appeal of Western Kentucky as defending conference champion against a maligned squad such as Rice, there is all the more allure to jump on the captivating Hilltoppers when the price seems right. However, the price is indicative of the market’s reluctance to call this one a rout. With question marks surrounding both WKU’s offense and defense, there is no reason to write off Rice by any stretch and it is certainly feasible they hang around in this one and stay within two scores of WKU.
The Tigers are a very good team and their national title hopes will once again hinge on getting past Alabama in the SEC, but I am going to take Wisconsin and the generous 9.5 points in this matchup. The Badgers will be playing in front of a rabid crowd at Lambeau behind a fired-up defense and this should be enough to keep this game closer than the spread right to the final gun.
Both teams bring a ton of momentum into this national title game, but I have to go with Saban and the Tide as my "best bet" pick to win and cover the touchdown spread. Alabama has the big game experience it takes to win big at the highest level and it is playing its best ball of the year.
The Wildcats ended the season on a high note, but given the overall body of work for both these teams, I am going to lay the 12.5 points with a play on the Razorbacks as the better team on both sides of the ball.
I like the Rebels in this matchup as the better all-around team and the Cowboys' unsettled situation at quarterback adds even more value to Ole Miss minus the seven points. Look for Mississippi to post another major bowl victory against Oklahoma State both SU and ATS on New Year's Day.
This game should be a defensive struggle from the start and while I am not going to take the bait on the low total line, points will be hard to come by for both teams. As far as a play on a side, I am going with the underdog Gators and the four points as my "best bet" pick.
There could be some cause for concern with Iowa's quarterback situation, but I like the Hawkeyes' chances to still be able to hand the ball off to Canzeri on offense and play stout defense on the other side of the ball to cover against Stanford with the six points.
Alabama was stunned by Ohio State in last season's national semifinals so you know that head coach Nick Saban will have his team ready to go this time around. That being said, I still see this game staying close to the final gun with the Spartans holding on to cover with the 9.5 points.
This should be a great matchup between two highly balanced offenses that know how to put points on the board. While I am tempted to sit back and watch the show with a play on the OVER, I am going with my "best bet" pick of Clemson and the 3.5 points in what should be a three-point game either way.
It is hard to think that the Aggies' current off-field mess at the quarterback position is not going to hurt them on the field in this game. I am willing to bet that it does with a play on Louisville winning SU and covering the two-point spread.
The key matchup in this game will be the Trojans' high-powered offense against the Badgers' stingy defense. I like USC's chances to win that battle on the scoreboard, but what I really like is the UNDER 50.5 on the total line as my "best bet" pick.
I see the Tar Heels coming into this game with something to prove even though they only have two losses on the year. Given Baylor's situation at quarterback, it could be big challenge for the Bears' offense to keep pace on the scoreboard making my "best bet" pick North Carolina in a SU win.