College Football Picks - Free Weekly ATS Predictions
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The betting lines for this rematch are exactly the same as last year and unfortunately for Clemson fans, I also think the final result will be the same as well. The Tigers have a great chance to one again cover with the 6.5 points, but I do not believe they can come away with the SU win.
This should be a great matchup between the country’s top two college football teams. While last year’s game turned into a shootout, I actually like the UNDER 50.5 points this time around as my “best bet” pick in a game that will be dominated by defensive play.
This game is truly a 50/50 proposition, so it boils down to finding the most value here. Undoubtedly, enhanced points plus reduced juice is the way to go if one is trying to isolate the value. USC is spotting nearly a touchdown and requires more juice to do so and thus it is worth staying clear of. The amount of heavy action on the MoneyLine on Penn State suggests that perhaps they are priced to affably in an outright situation. The market will assuredly be quite sharp in this contest be that The Rose Bowl is one of the most prestigious games in all of college football. Therefore we will operate on the most favorable wrinkle we can isolate which is PSU with the points, no Money Line play would be advised.
I like the Tigers to get the SU win in this matchup as a far more consistent and predictable team. The Cardinals may have more star power led by Jackson at quarterback, but this team, as a whole, is far too unpredictable when it comes to playing in high-profile games such as this year’s Citrus Bowl.
That being said, my “best bet” pick in this one is the OVER on the current 59.5-point total line. I see both teams having success on offense in what should be a true shootout over all four quarters of play.
Normally I would be leery of betting on a favorite that is heading into its bowl game with a deep sense of disappointment over how its season ended, but Michigan is clearly the better overall team in this matchup and I still believe that it will play like it has something to prove.
This matchup should remain a highly entertaining affair for all four quarters, but in the end my “best bet” pick is the Wolverines both SU and ATS on the current seven-point betting line.
The Razorbacks were one of the few offenses to have some level of success against Alabama this season in a 49-30 loss so I would expect them to be able to put some points on the board in this matchup.
Virginia Tech may not have the greatest track record in recent bowl games, but this is a whole new program under the guidance of Fuente as head coach. Given what we have already seen from this team, the Hokies should also have their fair share of opportunities to light up the scoreboard.
In what should be one of the more entertaining bowl games on this year’s schedule, my “best bet” pick in this one would be the OVER on the current 61.5-point total line.
The betting line for this game has basically remained unchanged after McCaffrey’s announcement, but I would not underestimate the impact his loss will have in this matchup. Anytime you lose your best player for any reason it could have a negative effect on the psyche of the entire team, especially at the collegiate level.
The Tar Heels still have a few NFL-caliber players in their lineup for this bowl game and that is why I am taking the three points in a game they should win SU.
This bowl is another example of a solid Mid Major team taking on a very average team from a major conference. It is easy to see why the Bulls are double-digit favorites in this matchup and the only reason why the spread is not higher is because they are playing a team from the SEC.
The betting line for this game opened at 11 and it has moved a half point in favor of the Gamecocks. Do not take the bait and go with a South Carolina team that had to scratch and claw its way to six wins. Go big on South Florida to win and cover in his one.
Playing chalk is never a favorite cup of tea especially when you are spotting a fair amount of points. However, to see the public smother the Cowboys on the Money Line suggests that the underdog here may actually be overemphasized. Typically, when the public likes a pooch that signals that there is often too many points being spotted to the public by their perception which means that the favorite may actually be in a short-sell. The Cougars have made an example out of every team they have come across since starting off 1-3. Let us also remind everyone that those three losses to start off the regular season were fostered in the most gut-wrenching and uncanny manners imaginable. BYU could have easily been playing a New Year’s Six Bowl game had they caught a few breaks along the way and they will look to finish with a bold point against a struggling Wyoming Cowboys team that have hit their peak this season.
Once again playing on favorites is not typically a conducive move, especially when there is a little more juice required to lay those points. When you factor in the team we are giving those points to, it seems like a very dicey roll. However, Baylor has not won a game in six weeks. This is a team that started off 6-0, getting as high as #6 in the polls before collapsing down the back-stretch. Baylor’s once pyrolytic offense has struggled to break the 35 point mark in their six-game skid. While 35 points may seem like a lot to most, the Bears are used to scoring an average of 50 points per game. Boise State will treat this bowl like any other and pulverize this Baylor outfit in complete disarray. The Broncos with these points is a value play as they are poised to absolutely squash the Bears.
Oklahoma is usually a team that bears a cup of wrath for any taker be that they are usually overvalued by their namesake alone. However, this narrative works to our advantage when you consider the early steam on the Tigers. Oklahoma has been playing football at a different level since they started off 1-2 with early losses against Ohio State and Houston. The Sooners’ offense is finally in sync and their defense has paved the way for them to win the Big 12 outright. Auburn has lost their last two SEC games which has dismissed their viability. Auburn has more or less beaten up on teams that have been weak all over the span of the regular season and any of consequence has been a problem to the Tigers in their campaign. Look for Oklahoma to capitalize here and provide value as a short-priced favorite.
Defense usually trumps offense and Appalachian State will aim and endeavor to reinforce that notion in this bowl game. As mentioned, the Mountaineers are committed to playing football at a superior level and alas they have always been eager to schedule tough opponents in out-of-conference contests. In the 2016, the Mountaineers set dates with two Power Five opponents, while Toledo’s most formidable tests were against BYU and Arkansas State. The Mountaineers will look at Toledo as another day at the office and given the fact this team nearly defeated Tennessee in Knoxville on opening night, you know this outfit is looking to end their successful campaign with an exclamation point. A year ago, the Mountaineers were in this bowl game against Ohio and they went forth and emerged victorious on the heels of a thrilling comeback. While we get a premium team at a quality price we will go ahead and call for App State in outright in a defense-oriented affair dictated to their liking, which will likely favor a Under wager.
The Roadrunners have been a solid play when they are a pooch with little appeal to the public. The Roadrunners covering against the spread at Texas A&M and Arizona State and their outright triumphs against Southern Mississippi and Middle Tennessee State, showcase their upside and propensity to be overlooked. New Mexico is entering this bowl game with a vulnerability to be overvalued. In what will be a barnburner, taking back over a touchdown is always a prudent play. Factoring in the narrative that New Mexico's defense is surrendering 32 points per game, the Roadrunners have an excellent chance of going toe-to-toe with the Lobos. If New Mexico comes in uninspired by virtue of the fact they may be irked at playing yet another New Mexico Bowl, the Roadrunners can easily take the Lobos to the pound.
While it has been quite some time since these former rivals have met on the football field, it should not take all that long for the intensity to pick right back up. West Virginia gets the slight edge in overall talent on offense, but Miami comes in with a slight edge on defense. No matter how you add things up this should be a close, hard-fought battle that lasts all four quarters.
I am going to take the Mountaineers and the three points on the current spread as my ‘best bet’ pick in a game that is too close to call straight up.
The Bulldogs could have easily finished at 10-2 this season, had they not lost three games by virtue of a Hail Mary and two points in total. 2016 was a year of emotional highs and lows for the Bulldog Nation as they defeated a ranked North Carolina the Chick-Fil-A Classic and a #9 Auburn in Athens to bolster their resume. For TCU, the Horned Frogs have more or less looked demoralized and against Kansas State they were simply flat. Given the fact TCU has played in games of more prominence in recent years, you have to wonder how they will enter this contest. TCU’s defense seems virtually non-existence and their offense looks out of sync. While Georgia may have five losses this season, they rank among the best in passing defense and have an absolute beast at running back in Nick Chubb when he is healthy. Look for the Dawgs to finish strong here.
This matchup is a classic case of a solid Mid-Major team going up against a marginal team from a major conference. Temple has the personnel on both sides of the ball to make a statement in this game and coming off a conference championship run it will look to close out a very productive season on a high note.
Lay the 13 points on the current betting line for this game and take the Owls to win big against an ACC team to further prove the point that there are too many bowls games.
Louisiana Tech opened as a slight underdog before Navy’s loss of Worth at quarterback coupled with its recent loss to Army. The fact that the spread only swung 3.5 points in the Bulldogs’ favor opens up a golden opportunity to take advantage of the Midshipmen’s recent woes with a big unit play on Louisiana Tech.
I just cannot see Navy staying close on the scoreboard against the potent Bulldogs for all four quarters with its best player out of the lineup.
These two teams matchup pretty well with each having an offense that knows how to put points on the board complementing a defense that has had its trouble keeping opposing teams from doing the same. While I would be tempted to go with the OVER in this game depending on the opening line, my “best bet” pick is the Golden Hurricane covering the current 11.5-point spread.
Tulsa has just too much firepower on offense for the Chippewas to keep things closer than a couple of scores over the course of all four quarters.
Houston may have a few bigger wins on its 2016 resume, but I have the Aztecs as the better all-around team in this matchup. I am also not all that sure just how motivated the Cougars will be with the departure of their head coach to the Big 12.
Even though this is one of the first games on a very crowded college bowl game schedule, I would go big with the Aztecs getting three points in this matchup. I just cannot help by feel that Houston’s defense is going to have a very hard time containing San Diego State’s power running game for all four quarters.
Regardless of the difficulties in beating the same team twice in a season, the number here seems a bit astronomical given the fact this one will likely be an offensive shootout where the defenses might as well watch this one from home. WKU making it back to the Conference USA’s Championship Game has already caught a lot of attention of the general public. This trend has a tendency to happen with teams that make it back to their conference title game as the current sitting champion. Look no further than the Clemson vs. Virginia Tech ACC Championship Game to quantify this hypothesis. In addition, the Hilltoppers have a hot hand and likely the line movements are reflection and a reaction to the loss the Dogs suffered against Southern Miss. A loss for LA Tech against Southern Miss should not denigrate any of their achievements, the Golden Eagles are a good team. Given the fact we can take back points with an underdog that has a proven track record of success against the team giving away the points combined with a double-digit allotment in an impending shootout, there is a lot of equity here in playing on LA Tech and fading the consensus.
The Frogs are going to look to wrap up their season strong and potentially finish off with eight wins, finishing a few notches below what they had hoped for. Nevertheless, Texas Christian will love to conclude their 2016 campaign with a bang at home against a Kansas State opponent looking to hit the nine-win plateau. Very simply we are playing this from the angle of home field advantage and the public being enamored with the Cannonballs after their smashing of the Rock Chalk Jayhawks last week. While beating up on a weaker foe does not constitute an overreaction generally, the ideology here is that Kansas State can hang around by virtue of the fact they are getting more points which sometimes intrigues players. It is very rare to say the public hop on the dog at this level which suggests to us the favorite may actually be undervalued by virtue of failing to live up to expectations. Nevertheless, Gary Patterson knows how to finish strong and thus TCU here at a cheap price is a great play.