CFB ATS Favorite of the Week Predictions
We’ve seen a lot of football handicappers suggest staying away from point spread favorites and if you do bet on a favorite then never lay more than a field goal. That’s good advice and will help most new bettors improve their bottom line and we followed the same rules for most of our predictions in the past.
However, our rules have been revised over the years and with that we have seen our winning percentage increase by not ruling out teams when they laying are more than 3-points. In the college game there can be a huge edge in the ability, size and skill level of teams from different conferences and that it may make sense to lay the big points on the favorite. Also, an injury or two on a team from a mid or lower conference can be huge as they don’t have the depth that the top conferences like a SEC team would have and it may be a huge drop off to the second string player or players.
Our team has the player knowledge and puts in the handicapping time to uncover teams worthy of making our Top College Football Favorite Picks of the Week.
Our selections will be available normally Friday afternoons and we may add additional picks up until noon on each Saturday.
Championship Weekend Favorite Picks: Western Michigan -17. Possibly more by Saturday morning.
Week 13 predictions: Iowa -1.5 Won and Ohio State -6.5 Lost.
Week 12 selections: Temple -15. Won
Virginia Tech -14 lost, NC State -7 Won.
No analysis this week. North Carolina -10 Won
No analysis this week. Mizz -6.5 Lost
Both clubs have two losses on the season with each losing to Texas A&M and Arkansas losing to Alabama two weeks ago at home and Auburn losing a close battle 19-13 to Clemson in their season opener. Where they aren’t similar is in run defense. The Tigers give up a reasonable average of 4.1 yards per carry compared to the Razorbacks dreadful 5.6 and keep in mind they’ve played the lowest ranked YPC team in the FBS Texas State (2.6) and a FCS opponent in Alcorn State. Auburn should have no difficulty running through and over Arkansas this week justifying the high line. Play on the Aubrurn Tigers -10.5 Won
Mizz comes off a two-week break giving them an extra week of preparation for the Gators and Florida comes into this game also after a two week break caused by Hurricane Matthew that would have had a big impact on their practice schedule. The advantage definitely points to Missouri, but we don’t think it will matter. The Tigers haven’t proved that they are capable of running against a quality run defense based on their two games against SEC opponents where they amassed a combined total of 172 yards on the ground in the two contests. If you can’t run against the Gators you are in trouble and we don’t think that Mizz will have any success against a unit that has allowed 2.5 yards per carry this season. The Florida pass defense has been one of the best in the country allowing 139.8 yards on the ground per game and tallying 19 sacks on 137 passing plays! The Gators get back starting QB Luke Del Rio who hasn’t played in the last two games and we should see a noticeable improvement in the offense with the extended playbook. Play on the Florida Gators -13.5 Won
Play on Texas A&M -7. Push
More selections: Utah -10. Won
Not too often will we back a 2-2 team laying points against a 4-0 conference rival, but we think that’s where your money should land in this Week 5 Pac-12 match. There is no doubting that the Utes have a quality defense, but we feel that they’re overrated when you dig deeper into the stats. At home Utah shut out FCS Southern Utah, held BYU with a depleted offensive line to 19 points, allowed 17 points to San Jose State (Spartans highest total of three FBS games) and 27 to USC a team that was held to 6 by Alabama and 10 by Stanford. The Utes also come into this game banged losing their top DE Kylie Fitts and they may be without arguably their best defensive player DT Lowell Lotulelei. Cal will easily be the toughest test for this defense averaging 45.5 points per game lead by the nation’s top QB for passing yards and TD’s in Davis Webb. This game is nearly a must win for the Bears and with the low point spread has a field goal margin sending us to the windows to cash. Play on the Cal Golden Bears -2. Won
More plays: Miami -7 Won and South Florida -5.5 Won.
The spread is high for this game especially when you consider that the last four in this series were decided by seven points or less. That said, the VTech racked up 24 points on 400 total yards on Tennessee and 49 points on 476 on Boston College. Two defenses that are far superior to East Carolina’s. The double revenge factor should have the host pedal to the metal for the full 60 minutes. Lay the points. Take the Virginia Tech Hokies -12.5 Won
More Week 4 Picks: Western Michigan -7 Won.
The Cavaliers start the season 0-2 being outscored 81-46 and travel for the second straight week. UConn should have won their match last week at Navy getting down to the one and a questionable play call had the time run out. This is a team that beat a good Houston team (Greg Ward Jr left the game early) on their home field last season and while they are on a 2-12 run as a home favorite they are a veteran team with 10 starters returning on offense and six on defense and should be able to put away a weak Virginia team. Play on the UConn Huskies -4.5 Won 13-10 but didn't cover the spread. Loss
Additional Favorite Picks for Week 3: Penn State -8.5. Won but didn't cover 34-27 L
Texas Tech passed for a ridiculous 633 passing yards last week but that was against lowly Stephen F. Austin and while they will meet an Arizona State team that gave up 369 passing yards to the Big Sky’s Northern Arizona. That said the Sun Devils gave up just 13 points in a bend but not break defensive display and they’ll need more of the same this week. We’re going to bank on Arizona State’s big edge over Texas Tech in this game in the running game on Saturday. They have a two headed RB tandem of D. Richards and K. Ballage who ran for a combined 1822 yards last season. QB M. Wilkins should be a match up problem for the Red Raiders. He looked fantastic rushing for 89 yards on 14 carries.
Play on the Arizona State Sun Devils -3 +100 Won 68-55
We like the Vandy defense playing against a team that we think will need a few games to get their offense on track with a new coach on the sidelines and undecided QB situation. There is some wind in the forecast and if this becomes a battle between of the two running games then the Commodores should have an easy time of it with one of the better LB units in the country behind a solid DL. Vanderbilt as a favorite? Close your eyes.
Play on Vanderbilt -4 Lost 13-10