College Basketball Picks - ATS Predictions
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Florida State’s only losses this came to Temple on a neutral court and to very good UNC team on the road two starts back. That seemed to jar their confidence squeezing out a narrow three point victory over ND in the follow up. I think that they’ll step up big on Saturday afternoon. The Cardinals have put together a good run and surprised many sharps with their blow out win over Clemson on Thursday. FSU has a 20-point edge in scoring at home this season beating some quality some quality opponents in Notre Dame, Duke and Wake Forest and while I don’t expect the Louisville to roll over here the spread is low enough to give value to the home side.
The majority of Yale’s wins have come in unlined games and their only quality win came in their season opener against Washington. Both of their Ivy League games were on the road, but they haven’t impressed beating losing to Princeton and beating Penn by 6. Brown has also had both of their conference on the road with same result, but they easily distanced themselves from the Quakers winning by 12. The Bulldogs are expecting Anthony Dallier back after missing last game, which will help Yale, but this game should be more in the pick’em range.
EMU had a bad stretch back in the middle of December but has won six of their last seven games including two MAC wins on the road. Akron did put away Ohio by 25 points in their latest easily covering the 6-point line for their eighth straight victory. However, they don’t always extend the margin with their previous four matches against the MAC being by seven are fewer points failing to get the point spread cover in three of those games. The value is on the visitor.
Arizona has just two losses on the season coming against Butler and Gonzaga and even the most biased Trojan fan couldn’t place USC in the same classification. Only the Wildcats first win of the season was by less than today’s handicap.
Clemson has played well on the road going 2-2 with wins over Wake Forest and South Carolina. They did lose by 5 to Notre Dame in a game that wasn’t decided until 9 seconds were left on the clock. They catch Louisville banged up losing G Quentin Snider to a hip flexor injury and are a live dog in this spot.
The Cougars have been very underwhelming at home this season losing two of their last three and failing to cover the line in all three. Memphis hasn’t played all that bad on the road destroying Tulane 80-59 and knocking off Oklahoma 99-94 in overtime. I’ll take the generous points offered.
After dropping a game against Nebraska, Maryland reeled off three straight outright wins as a dog. They go into this game in that role again and one thing that can’t be argued is the inconsistent play of Iowa. However, the Hawkeyes are much better at home and while they don’t often extend the margin against this calibre team they haven’t lost a game at home since November.
We’ve seen Belmont in this position before. The Bruins are virtually a household name at this point when it comes to mid-major programs appearing in the Final Four on basically an annual basis. By virtue of this alone, the Bruins are often overvalued. Belmont is a frequenter of spotting more points than they should be, especially when they are playing host. There are many compelling arguments against spotting the points. First, Jacksonville State edges out Belmont in field goal percentage. When it comes to three-point shooting Jacksonville State is one of the best in the country as they hit 39% from the beyond the arc achieving a 39th ranked national mark. Furthermore, the Gamecocks commit less turnovers, play stronger defense and are the better rebounding team compared to the Bruins both on offense and defense. Jacksonville State is ranked 38th nationally in defensive rebounds. In addition to this, the Bruins are apparently one of the best teams to shoot free throws against as they rank towards the bottom of the list in opponent free throw percentage (357th nationally). Once again this allows a team like Jacksonville State to malinger in this contest which again makes Belmont a dicey team to spot points with. When you factor in all these variables with Belmont’s vulnerability to be overvalued, Jacksonville State is once again situated to bode tremendous value. Even if most of the public has caught on we won’t change our position because it the Gamecocks are now a better team than Belmont has faced previously and even then the Gamecocks have yielded success previously in this distinct situation as a team with a losing record.
The Seminoles haven’t dropped a game as a host this season winning all 12 and going 8-2 against the spread in lined games. After their previous loss Florida State easily took care of Illinois winning by 9 as a 7.5 point favorite to start a 12 game winning streak The Fighting Irish have gone 3-0 on the road this season beating some decent clubs, but no one in the Seminoles class. Florida State’s last three home games have been impressive beating Duke, Virginia Tech and Wake Forest all by 15 or more points. Lay the points.
Penn State comes into this game off of two sharp wins and may catch Indiana in a bad spot without Juwan Morgan (Game Time Decision). The Hoosiers come into this game not having a victory as a in two true road games with a FG% 8.5 percentage points lower than their overall shooting percentage. I’ll take the points with the home side.
Miami has dropped two of three with their lone win coming over a beat up Pittsburgh team. Their road record isn’t very impressive when you consider that their two wins came against the aforementioned Pitt team and a victory over North Florida in an unlined game. Their only game against a decent team they lost by 15 to Syracuse.
The Gators have failed in two tests against a quality opponent and while the Gamecocks could be classified as a quality opponent in my opinion they are not in the same class as the Blue Devils or the Semionoles.Florida is playing very well right now and I believe that going to overtime in their latest will add to their focus for this game.
Ohio managed just 49 points in their latest versus EMU when they lost Forward Antonio Campbell after he had played 3 minutes. He’s unlikely to go again tonight and if he doesn’t I don’t think that the Bobcats scoring will reach the 70 points and my numbers show a 63.. The Akron defenses has allowed just 66.3 points per game at home this season and keep in mind that this is a team that held Gonzaga to 61 and Creighton to 82. Akron has scored an average of 82.3 at home this season on 50.8 shooting but Ohio has done a good job on the road holding the opposition to just over 40% from the field.
The Panthers Forward Michael Young had a terrible game going 0 for 10 from the field dealing with an eye injury (wearing a mask) and it’s unlikely that he’ll be anywhere near fully recovered by this game. The Wolfpack have struggled in their last five games on the defensive side of the ball allowing opponents to shoot 47.3 from the field but may be able to improve against Pitt’s banged up unit. The big difference tonight will be on the boards.
The Aggies have lost four of their last five games including two games that they were favored in. The Razorbacks have dropped two of three in true road games, but the two losses were to two teams that are far superior to Texas A&M. TAM may win this game, but aren’t worthy of a handicap.
This game cannot be broken down by wins and losses or quantified by records in conference play. The Panthers clearly have the competitive edge here as they have dominated this series as of late. Wisconsin-Milwaukee, while they stand at 5-13 on the year overall in straight-up markets are 9-7 ATS for just cause. This is a team that has been undervalued far more than they should and have not been given the respect they deserve for some of the outcomes they have cultivated. This is a club that has played a lot of good teams tough. Teams such as Green Bay, Middle Tennessee State, Ohio and Memphis where they were able to give these outfits trouble on the road. This team also gave Belmont a scrap when they came to Milwaukee earlier this season. All five of these teams were vying or managed to get in to the 2016 Men’s Basketball Tournament. The only team that the Flames have encountered recently that stacks up to any of these aforementioned teams Milwaukee has played is a true false favorite in Oakland. The Panthers have played a much tougher schedule on paper than the Flames and this often allows records to be deceiving as a result. Illinois-Chicago has lost to teams such as Grand Canyon which showcases their inconsistency and debunks viability of them being a true winning team. This team has been a bottom feeder that put together a slew of wins on a padded schedule and now they get one of their tougher tests against a team with a deceptive record of their own which does not showcase how battle-tested they already are. Wisconsin-Milwaukee will look to change the tide of their season with a win here. Overall quality of competition will be the defining factor in this affair.
I’m going to have to jump on the UNDER in this game. The Cyclones know that the only way that can win this game is if they limit the opportunities and play lights out defense. That’s something that Iowa State has done at home this season holding opposition to 59.6 points per game on a ridiculous 33.8 shooting. It’s a big step up to Kansas compared to the majority of the teams they have faced, but the Jayhawks shooting really falls off on the road with an over 7 percentage point drop to 42.6 FG%. On the other end of the court Kansas allowed 67.7 PPG in three road games with two of the three matches going falling UNDER the total.
The Friars have lost all five of their true road games and have failed to cover the spread in the last four. They’ve been the dog in four of the games and covered only their first in that role losing to Ohio State 72-67 as a +6.5 favorite. Providence does have an edge on the boards and did the win the battle in their earlier contest, but their shooting numbers on the road are extremely poor shooting a dismal 39%. Look for Georgetown to avenge the loss with some strong defense play tonight. The Hoyas have allowed their opponents 68.2 points per game at home this season and considering the Friars road scoring issues, I think they can improve on that number tonight.
The Wolfpack have yet to lose at home this but what quality win do they have? They’ve destroyed a bunch of overmatched teams as expected. Their destruction of VT wasn’t that impressive when you factor in the situation with the Hokies hitting the road feeling a little too full of themselves after knocking off Duke. The Yellow Jackets in their last road tilt got destroyed at Duke, but the narrative is the same as previously mentioned. Georgia Tech was coming off of a shocking 12-point win over UNC as a 17-point home dog and came up flat against the Blue Devils. GT is only 1-3 on the road this season, but did have a good one two back against VCU getting the straight up win in OT. NC State has scored an average of 87.8 points while allowing just 69.3 points per game to their opposition, but I think we have a live dog here who could win this outright if they play to their full abilities.
The linesmaker opened this line at -7 thinking that the public would go to the window backing the Zags with both fist s and they have, but the sharps have come in on the Gaels driving this line down to -5.5. St. Mary’s did win two of three in this series last season including a 63-55 win on this court as a 5.5 point dog.