College Basketball Picks - ATS Predictions
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Memphis knocked off Houston in overtime to get the three point road win in their last meeting and a switch of venues should give the Tigers a sweep a regular season sweep of the Cougars. Memphis is 13-3 at home this season overall and 5-2 in their conference with a stinker against Temple and a four point loss to SMU as their two defeats. Houston has back to back road wins over bottom feeding Tulsa and Tulane, but the story was different when playing moderate to good conference teams falling to SMU by 21 and UCF by 5.
I’d normally fade a team off of a big upset win which is the spot that Butler is in today. However, Xavier hasn’t proven that it can win without guard Edmond Summer. They won the first two games that he missed, by destroying their opponent on the glass an event that is very unlikely to happen in this match.
The loss of guard Eron Harris can’t be discounted, but the Spartans did respond with a resounding 16-point win over the Cornhuskers in their first game with his absence. Michigan State has been on a roll at home winning their last four and catch Wisconsin on a downward spiral. The Badgers have dropped three of their last four games and while they are a decent 5-3 on road straight up they’re 2-6 against the spread and keep in mind that three of those wins were in overtime. The wrong team is favored here.
The Trojans are on a three game losing streak, but in all fairness they have played the top three clubs in the conference. What is a bit of a surprise is the way that they lost, losing all three games by at least of 11 points, so their confidence level may be on the low side of the meter. ASU played USC tough on the road by just three points and it certainly would be a reach to think that Sun Devils can win this game outright.
One thing both of these clubs has been doing is playing top notch defense. Purdue has held its last four opponents to 64 or fewer points and Michigan has been outstanding allowing 70 or less points in nine of their last 10 games. This see this game hitting the mid 130’s which gives some value to the under side of this total.
Baylor barely held off Iowa State at home in their earlier meeting and now face the Cyclones on the road. ISU is unbeatable at home losing conference games to WVU and KU, but they are solid. Their shooting numbers both for offense and defense are far superior in the host role and they should be able to reverse the result against a Baylor team that has lost four of their last six conference games.
Look Arizona won the first meeting handily by 11 on the road and now take on UCLA at home where they’re 15-0. I just don’t see a different outcome tonight.
I could make an argument for Duke in this spot, but I believe that the total has more value. These two teams put up a combined total of 128 points. They now switch venues to Miami where the Hurricanes plat exceptional defense allowing 62.6 point per game. They’re 9-15-1 versus the O/U line and I like the trend to continue today.
The assessment and prognostication of North Dakota is at astounding levels. Not only are the Fighting Hawks sitting in the pole position of the Big Sky race, they are coming in off a landmark win achieved at the defending conference champion Weber State’s house. The Hawks would defeat the Wildcats by eight points despite entering the contest as a six-point underdog. An outcome of this nature exclusively is susceptible to generate an overreaction from the consensus. As a result, the follow-up effort in a contest against a perceived weaker opponent on the road, sets up North Dakota for a terrible let-down. Despite the contrasting records both in conference play and overall, Northern Colorado is set up perfectly here to submarine North Dakota who are likely coming in off a hangover from the huge win at Weber State. It is worth highlighting that over the previous seasons, the Bears in particular have been a nuisance for North Dakota. When comparing the two teams, the Bears own a better defense and the deeper bench. These advantages were procured against one of the toughest ranked non-conference schedules in America. The Bears will see their hosting opportunity as a chance to gain redemption for the loss three weeks ago where they saw a double-digit lead disintegrate down the back stretch. Place North Dakota on upset alert.
Buffalo is an unimpressive 4-3 as a host versus MAC opponents but they've really come on winning four of their last five with the lone loss coming against a streaking Kent State team. The Bulls appear to be a different team over their last 11 games winning 8 of the matches and losing two of their games by a combined two points. Akron was on a hot streak as well and while they have dropped two straight they were by a combined three points. The difference in this game I believe will be Buffalo's defense that has excelled at home allowing 67 points on 37.6 FG shooting. The Bulls lost by one on the road against the Zips and will get their payback tonight.
Niagara has been a disaster in February losing four of their six matches, but it must be pointed out that five of those six games were on the road. They travelled to met St. Peter's earlier in late January and came away with a two point win as an 8-point dog. I do think that the Peacocks can avenge that loss tonight at the Gallagher Center, but the six point handicap is a reach.
At first glance this looks like two bottom feeding teams battling it out and while their records do suggest that their play doesn't. Brown is 2-3 on the road beating 7-18 Cornell and 11-12 Penn and on the other side of the decision they lost by 5 to Columbus, by 10 to Yale and 29 to Princeton. Dartmouth won their earlier match on the road against Brown 77-74 and should be able to repeat that feat tonight. The Big Green have played reasonably well at home in recent games, splitting their last four going 3-1 ATS. One of the losses came against the Ivy League leader Princeton by 5 in a game that they had the laed in deep into the second half.
Yale has proved that they can't win against the top clubs in the Ivy League this season losing both games home and away to conference leading Princeton and at home to Harvard. They are 4-1 on the road this season, but only one game was against a top level opponent and as mentioned they fell by 8 points to the Princeton Tigers. The bulldogs also com into this game on a three game tailspin. Harvard vis 4-1 at home versus the Ivy and the same number against the spread with their only blemish ATS being a 6 point win over Columbus as an 8-point favorite.
The loss of F Yante Maten for Georgia is big. In thier last meeting against Alabama the Bulldogs' foward was responsible for a third of the team's scoring putting up 20 points in their 80-60 blowout loss. Alabama shot some crazy numbers in that game that they won't b e able to match going this go around shooting 51.1 from the field and 60% from 3 point land. The Tide are an overlay here. Georgia with MAten playing just two minutes hung with Kentucky falling by five points and can keep this close tonight.
Arizona hasn't been a good bet in recent games dropping four of the last five and six of the last eight games against the spread. USC was on a roll winning five straight and four versus the line before getting blown out in two straight. The Trojans have won four of seven Pac-12 games, but three of the wins came against conference bottom feeders Washington, Washington State and Oregon State. So picking a side here is more like a coin flip. The total line though is a different story. The Wildcats play exceptional defense at home allowing 61.6 points per game and in conference play as the host Arizona has held their last four opponents to 63 points per game. USC before getting stung by UCLA had been playing acceptable defense on the road holding their previous three teams to an average of 73 points per game. Also, keep in mind that UCLA is looming on deck for Arizona, so they may take their foot off the gas.
Neither one of these teams is playing their best basketball. Wisconsin has lost two of their last three games and has been killing their backers' bankrolls going 1-4 ATS in their last four. Ohio State has been on the losing side in three straight but two of those games came on the road and their latest at home wasn't all that bad falling by one point to Nebraska. The Badgers shot an amazing 54.5% from behind the arc going 12 of 22! A repeat of anything near that gets them the cover, but the metrics point out that the probability of that happening is very slim.
The Spartans play superior defense at home allowing 65 points per game so I can't see the Cornuskers having more success than they did at home against this defense. Nebraska scored just 61 points and a match of anything near that would give us a big shot at keeping this game in the 130 range. Michigan State has averaged just 70.36 points per game in Big Ten matches and a repeat of that gets us the money.
History has illustrated that Murray State has been the overvalued team in this series. As mentioned in our analysis, in the previous eight meetings the Redhawks are 6-2 ATS. Furthermore, in five of these situations, they were the underdog. Murray State has spotted some inflated numbers to the Redhawks but this could be by virtue of the fact not many have ever heard of Southeast Missouri State. Despite a lack of faith in the Redhawks, Southeast Missouri State has orchestrated two outright upsets as an underdog against Murray State. First, as a 10-point road underdog in 2013 and they did so yet again this season in January as we had already mentioned. Given the trending tendency of this team to be an undervalued and very potent underdog combined with a clear cut case of home court advantage working in their favor, the Redhawks once again offer immense upside and value. When it is factored in that the Redhawks are more efficient in shot selection, play better defense and own a deeper bench, all the variables indicate that they are ready to pull off yet another upset. Additionally, we will lay the Over and take the Under contrary to popular perception as the Redhawks’ defense can likely dictate the pace and tempo of this contest as they did earlier this season in the previous meeting.
The Terps have been a bettors' dream going 10-3-1 ATS in Big Ten Games but have tailed off in recent games going 2-2-1 versus the betting line and in my opinion haven't had a top level performance since the last time these two met. On the other side of the court the Gophers have taken off since the loss stringing together five straight victories. Minnesota is only 8-6 in conference games, but keep in mind that three of those defeats were by two or fewer points. I'll jump on a live dog and take the points.
Look the Aggies lost an earlier match at home against the Razorbacks by 2 and with their track record on the road it would make this game a reach for them to get the W. Can they cover? Texas A&M is 2-5 in their conference road games but they did get the money in three of those matches, however all five of their road losses were by five or more points all in regulation time. Arkansas is just 4-3 in SEC home games, but they are on a 3-1 run at home and 3-0 overall and they're where my money is going to land today.