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Defending Sprint Cup Champ Kyle Busch made a statement last week at Indianapolis with his fourth point race victory of the season. Matt Kenseth placed second and Jimmie Johnson turned in a solid run to take third. I went with Denny Hamlin at +1800 betting odds as my top valued contender in that race and he finished just out of the money in fourth place.
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The following is a look at a few of the top favorites to win this Sunday’s race along with my top value pick based on betting odds provided by <a class="advblue" href="http://www.sportsbettingstats.com/sportsbooks/topbet">TopBet</a&gt; one of our favorite sports books for betting NASCAR races.
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Favorites
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Kyle Busch opened as one of two +600 favorites last week along with Kevin Harvick and he paid off with a big win. This week he has the stage all to himself as a +500 favorite to win again. I would not necessarily bet against those odds given the way the No. 18 Toyota has performed this year. This is one of two teams with four Sprint Cup victories this season and all told it has finished fifth or better in 11 of the first 20 point race events. The one drain on these odds is that earlier this season at Pocono, Busch struggled all race long in a 31st-place finish and he ended up 21st in this race last year.
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While the betting odds are the same as last week at +600, Kevin Harvick is the second-favorite to win this Sunday. He ended up sixth at Indianapolis after placing fourth the week before in New Hampshire so the current form of the No. 4 Chevrolet is solid. This team remains at the top of the Sprint Cup standings with 671 total points, but it still has just one checkered flag to its credit and that was all the way back in March at Phoenix. If you are looking for a reason to bet on Harvick to end this drought at Pocono, you might want to think again. He has never won a Sprint Cup race at this track and he comes into this race with a 14.0 average finishing position here.
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Behind the wheel of the No. 48 Chevrolet, Jimmie Johnson has been quietly positioning this team for a title run in this year’s Chase. He has two point race victories on the year and a total of seven Top 5 runs. This is good enough for eighth-place in the current standings with 552 points. Johnson’s odds to add another victory to the resume this week have been set at +800. Last week’s finish in the Top 3 is a good sign and I also like the fact that he has finished sixth or better in seven of his last 11 Sprint Cup races at Pocono including a victory here in 2013.
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