Bank of America 500 Betting Odds - Free Pick

October 8, 7:00 PM EDT

Martin Truex Jr. has quickly established himself as the man to beat in the year’s title Chase with a victory last week at Dover after winning two weeks ago at Chicago. Kyle Busch ended up second at the Monster Mile and rookie Chase Elliott was third. Last week’s top-valued pick at +1350 odds was Joey Logano and he ended up sixth in the final standings at Dover.

The following is a look at a few of the top favorites to win this Saturday night's race along with my top value pick based on betting odds provided by 5Dimes.


Bank of America 500 Favorites

It is a brand new round of racing action in this year’s Chase and the driver at the top of the standings is favored to win again with Martin Truex Jr. listed at +425 betting odds to make it three of four in this 10-race playoff to the title. It would be hard to bet against the No. 78 Toyota given everything this team has accomplished the past few weeks. Going back to the race at Darlington over Labor Day Weekend, Truex has won three times and finished third at Richmond and seventh at New Hampshire. Adding even more value to these odds is his win earlier this season at Charlotte.

There is a pair of +625 second-favorites to win on Saturday night starting with Kevin Harvick. He automatically advanced to this round with a victory at New Hampshire and his overall racing form has also been strong lately with a Top 5 finish in five of his last seven races starting with a victory at Bristol on Aug. 20. The No. 4 Chevrolet has three point-race wins on the year to go along with another 11 runs inside the top five finishers. Harvick was a runner up to Truex at Charlotte back in May and he has not finished higher than ninth in his last seven trips around this track.

Jimmie Johnson is the other second-favorite to win this race at +625 betting odds after very quietly advancing to the next round of the Chase. The No. 48 Chevrolet started its title run with a 12th-place finish at Chicago followed by an eighth-place run at New Hampshire and a seventh-place finish at Dover. You would have to go all the way back to late July to find the last time Johnson cracked the Top 5 and his last victory this season was in late March. The main reason for such lofty odds is his past track record at Charlotte. He has seven career victories at this venue in a point-race event and he is coming off a third-place finish in the first race here this season.

Bank of America 500 Top Value Pick

There are a couple of Chase drivers listed at higher odds for this race, but my top-valued pick would be Matt Kenseth at +1050. He comes into the Round of 12 in fourth-place in current standings after posting a second-place finish at New Hampshire followed by this past Sunday’s fifth-place finish at Dover. The No. 20 Toyota has only made its way into the Top 5 six times this season, but two of those races ended with a trip to Victory Lane. The main value in his odds lies in his recent form at Charlotte. Going back to this event in 2013, he has placed seventh or better in four of six races here.

Free Pick: 
Take Matt Kenseth +1050