Alabama 500 Betting Odds - Free Pick

October 23, 1:30 PM EDT

Kevin Harvick’s victory last week at Kansas automatically advances him to the Round of 8 in this year’s Chase. Carl Edwards placed second in that race and Joey Logano took third. Unfortunately, my top-valued pick of Denny Hamlin at +1650 betting odds did not pan out after he slipped all the way to 15th.

The following is a look at a few of the top favorites to win this Sunday’s race along with my top value pick based on betting odds provided by 5DIMES

Race Favorites

The Alabama 500 is an elimination race for the Round of 12 in this season’s Sprint Cup Chase and one driver on the outside looking in right now is Brad Keselowski. He is sitting in the 11th spot of the current Sprint Cup standings and the only way to keep his title chances alive would be to win on Sunday as a +450 favorite. Fortunately for fans of the No. 2 Ford, Keselowski has had some solid success at this track including a victory in this race in 2014 when facing elimination. Adding even more value to these odds is a victory in the first race at Talladega this season.

Kyle Busch is sitting in fourth place in the current standings with 3072 points so there is a very good chance he will advance to the Round of 8 in this year’s Chase, but he also knows that a victory on Sunday as a +700 second favorite would guarantee his No. 18 Toyota a spot in the next round. He has placed eighth or better in the first five races in this year’s Chase including a second-place run at Dover and a fifth-place finish last Sunday at Kansas. Busch placed second in the first race at Talladega this year, but his last victory here in a Sprint Cup event was in 2008.

Another one of the top drivers in the Sprint Cup series trying to keep their fading title hopes alive is Denny Hamlin and his odds to advance with a win have been set at +1000. He has fallen to 10th in the standings with 3039 points and his only chance to get into the Round of 8 would be with a trip to the Winner’s Circle this Sunday afternoon. Hamlin’s first trip to Talladega this season ended with a disappointing 31st-place finish behind the wheel of the No. 11 Toyota. With an average finishing position of 20.0 at this track, it is hard to find any real value in these odds.

Alabama 500 Race Prediction

If you are looking for some solid value at longer odds then I would go with Joey Logano to win on Sunday at +1200. His margin for error driving the No. 22 Ford is basically zero since he would need to finish second or better to advance to the next round. He started the Chase with a second-place finish at Chicago to go along with last week’s third-place run. Talladega has not been one of Logano’s better venues over the course of his Sprint Cup career with an average finishing position of 19.9, but he did break through with a victory in this race in 2015.

Free Pick: 
Take Joey Logano +1200