AAA Texas 500 Betting Odds - Free Nascar Pick

November 6, 2:00 PM EST

Jimmie Johnson laid claim to one of four available spots in the season-ending championship race with a victory last Sunday at Martinsville. Brad Keselowski finished second in that race and Denny Hamlin ended up third. Matt Kenseth was my top-valued pick at +1000 betting odds but he slipped to fourth in the final running order.

The following is a look at a few of the top favorites to win this Sunday’s race along with my top value pick based on betting odds provided by 5DIMES.

AAA Texas 500 Race Favorites

This is the time of the year to go chalk on the betting odds with so much on the line and the driver at the top of this week’s list is Kevin Harvick as one of three favorites listed at +500 to win this race. Behind the wheel of the No. 4 Chevrolet, the 2014 Sprint Cup Champ has already won two previous Chase events this year at New Hampshire and Kansas to automatically advance to the next round. He is coming off a 20th-place finish at Martinsville which could actually set the stage for a victory this week. The one drain on Harvick’s odds is an average finishing position of 12.2 at Texas.

Kyle Busch is also a +500 favorite to win on Sunday in pursuit of his second-straight Sprint Cup title. The No. 18 Toyota racing team is still looking for its first victory in this season’s Chase, but it has remained extremely competitive with a Top 5 finish in four of the first seven events including a fifth-place run last week at Martinsville. What really adds value to these odds is Busch’s victory at Texas earlier in the season. He has now finished fourth or better in six of his last seven Sprint Cup events at this track.

Last week’s winner Jimmie Johnson has been listed as the third +500 favorite to make a third trip to Victory Lane in this year’s Chase after also winning at Charlotte to advance to this round. Sometimes it makes sense to ride the hot hand, but given the fact that the No. 48 car has already punched its ticket to the championship race at Homestead-Miami in two weeks, this latest win might actually drain some of the value in these odds. Johnson raced well at Texas earlier in the season with a fourth-place finish in the first point-race event here and the impressive fact that he has won five of the last eight Sprint Cup events at this track still makes him a solid play.

AAA Texas 500 Race Prediction

The margin for error to land one of the three remaining spots for this year’s championship round is paper thin so you need to start looking at drivers that know how to win races when it comes to stretching the odds. That is why I am going with Denny Hamlin at +1500 betting odds as this week’s top-valued pick. The No. 11 Toyota is still looking for its first checkered flag through the first seven Chase events, but it came into the playoffs hot with a victory at Richmond and last Sunday’s third-place finish at Martinsville matched this team’s third-place run at Talladega the week before. The reason for such long odds this week is Hamlin’s recent track record at Texas with three-straight finishes outside the Top 10, but he has already proven he can win here with two career victories in a Sprint Cup event.

Free Pick: 
Take Denny Hamlin +1500

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