San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres Odds Analysis - Free MLB Pick

July 16, 4:40 PM EDT

Betting Odds

Giants -118 / Padres +108
7.5ov -105

On the Sunday afternoon MLB board it's the 35-57 San Francisco Giants versus the 39-51 San Diego Padres in the final game of a three-game set at Petco Park in San Diego, California today. The first pitch of the finale at Petco Park is scheduled for 4:40 PM ET.

The Giants get the road favorite role with their backers being asked to lay between -118 and -132 at the sportsbooks we track. The total for this game is listed at 7.5 runs on many of the betting boards.

In Game 2 of this series yesterday the Padres beat the Giants 5-3. In the game the Padres scored five runs on seven hits and the Giants scored three runs on six hits. San Diego’s Hector Sanchez played the hero with a 2-run walk-off HR in the 9th inning.

This season the Giants rank 28th in the Majors in runs scored and 24th in team ERA.

The Padres rank 30th in the Majors in runs scored and 20th in team ERA.

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Pitching Match Up

San Francisco: Jeff Samardzija (4-10, 4.58 ERA)
San Diego: Trevor Cahill (3-3, 3.38 ERA)

Jeff Samardzija gets the nod for the Giants today and he gave up four earned runs in seven innings in his last start, which was a 5-4 loss to the Miami Marlins. The Giants had won his previous two starts where he gave up a total of four runs in 12 innings of work. In Samardzija’s lone start against the Padres early in the season he gave up two earned runs in seven innings in a 4-3 San Francisco win. In 13 career appearances, including 11 starts, against the Padres he is 7-2 with an ERA of 3.13 and in six appearances and five starts at San Diego he is 3-1 with an ERA of only 2.04. The Giants have won five of their last seven games against the Padres with Samardzija on the hill. The Giants have lost six of his last eight starts after a loss in the previous game.

Trevor Cahill goes for the Padres in this division series finale and in his last start he gave up four earned runs in five innings in a 7-1 loss to the Philadelphia Phillies. The Padres have lost two of his last three starts where he gave up seven earned runs in the losses and no earned runs in the win. Cahill’s last three starts have been on the road. This is his first start of the season against the Giants and in 16 career appearances, including 13 starts, against them he is 6-5 with an ERA of 3.81. In three home starts this season Cahill has been lights out going 3-0 with an ERA of only 0.49. Overall, the Padres have won five of Cahill’s last seven starts.

Betting Angles

The Padres are 13-5 in their last 18 games against the Giants.

In the last 5 games between these teams in San Diego the Over record is 4-1.

This season the Padres are 23-23 at home and the Giants are 18-33 on the road.

Straight Up / Over/Under / Run Line Records

San Francisco Giants: 35-57 SU / O/U 42-43 / Run Line W/L 37-55
San Diego Padres: 39-51 SU / O/U 44-41 / Run Line W/L 47-43

San Francisco at San Diego Key Betting Trends

  • SF is 1-5 in their last 6 overall
  • SF is 0-5 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter
  • SF has an Over record of 4-0 in their last 4 games
  • SD is 6-2 in their last 8 home games vs. a right-handed starter
  • SD is 2-5 in their last 7 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game
  • SD has an Over record of 3-1-1 in their last 5 home games

Key Player Injuries

[P] 04/03/2017 - Will Smith 60-day DL (04/01) ( Elbow )
[LF] 06/09/2017 - Michael Morse 10-day DL (06/08) ( Concussion )
[RF] 06/23/2017 - Jarrett Parker 60-day DL (04/16) ( Collarbone )
[P] 07/15/2017 - Johnny Cueto 10-day DL (07/15) ( Blister )
[RF] 07/09/2017 - Austin Slater 10-day DL (07/08) ( Groin )
[3B] 07/08/2017 - Ryder Jones 10-day DL (07/07) ( Wrist )
[P] 06/29/2017 - Mark Melancon 10-day DL (06/28) ( Arm )
[3B] 07/02/2017 - Christian Arroyo 60-day DL (07/02) ( Finger )

[RF] 07/14/2017 - Hunter Renfroe 10-day DL (07/10) ( Neck )
[P] 07/14/2017 - Kirby Yates out indefinitely ( Paternity List )
[C] 07/15/2017 - Austin Hedges "?" Sunday vs. San Francisco Giants ( Head )
[2B] 06/21/2017 - Yangervis Solarte 10-day DL (06/21) ( Oblique )
[P] 06/24/2017 - Miguel Diaz 10-day DL (06/22) ( Forearm )
[P] 06/01/2017 - Christian Friedrich 60-day DL (03/30) ( Side )
[P] 06/06/2017 - Jarred Cosart 10-day DL (06/06) ( Side )
[LF] 04/08/2017 - Alex Dickerson 60-day DL (03/30) ( Back )
[CF] 04/25/2017 - Travis Jankowski 10-day DL (04/23) ( Foot )
[P] 05/20/2017 - Jered Weaver 10-day DL (05/20) ( Hip )
[P] 03/31/2017 - Colin Rea 60-day DL (02/18) ( Elbow )
[P] 03/31/2017 - Robbie Erlin 60-day DL (03/30) ( Elbow )
[P] 03/31/2017 - Buddy Baumann 60-day DL (03/30) ( Shoulder )
[P] 04/01/2017 - Carter Capps 60-day DL (03/31) ( Elbow )

San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres Prediction 7/16/2017

The Giants have split the first two games of this series and this is the rubber game. They have lost five of their last six games overall and they are in the basement of the NL West 28 games back of the L.A. Dodgers. The Padres had lost two straight games before beating the Giants yesterday and go for the series win today. They are in 4th place in the NL West 23 games out of first place. Samardzija had a good start in his only one facing the Padres this season and he will be decent today. However, that will not cut it facing Cahill, who has been great this season at home and will have another great home outing today. In a battle of a couple of the worst teams in the Majors the Padres will come out on top at home in a low scoring game and they will win the series.

Free Pick: 
Take the Padres +108