Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers Odds - Free Pick

June 19, 7:40 PM EDT

Betting Odds

Pirates -114 / Brewers +105

The 31-38 Pittsburgh Pirates travel to take on the 38-33 Milwaukee Brewers in the first game of a four-game set at Miller Park in Milwaukee, Wisconsin tonight. The first pitch of the opener at Miller Park is scheduled for 7:40 PM ET.

The Pirates are as high as a -125 moneyline favorite tonight in their game against the hosting Brewers. The total for this match is offered on the MLB betting boards at 9 or 9.5 at the sportsbooks we track.

In their last game, the Pirates lost to the Chicago Cubs 7-1. In that game, the Pirates scored one run on only three hits and the Cubs scored seven runs on 13 hits.

In their last game, the Brewers beat the San Diego Padres 2-1. In the game, the Brewers scored two runs on nine hits and the Padres scored one run on six hits.

This season the Pirates rank 26th in the Majors in runs scored and 18th in team ERA.

The Brewers rank 7th in the Majors in runs scored and 13th in team ERA.


Pitching Match Up

Pittsburgh: Gerrit Cole (4-6, 4.54 ERA)
Milwaukee: Matt Garza (3-2, 4.17 ERA)

Gerrit Cole gets the call for the Pirates in the first game of this NL Central series and he had a great last start only giving up one earned run in seven innings in a 5-2 win over the Colorado Rockies. The Pirates have won three of his last four starts, but previous to his last start he had given up seven earned runs in two straight outings. In his four starts before his last one Cole was 1-2 with an ERA of 10.73 giving up 23 runs, including eight HR, in 19 innings of work. Cole has one start this season against the Marlins and it was in Pittsburgh where he went seven innings and only gave up one run on only two hits in a 2-1 Pirates win. In his career facing the Brewers he is 3-2. Pittsburgh has only won one of Cole’s last five road starts and they have lost four of his last five starts against a team with a winning record.

Matt Garza goes for the Brewers tonight and in his last start he gave up four earned runs in five innings and got a lot of help from the lineup in a 7-6 win over the St. Louis Cardinals. The Brewers had lost his previous three starts where he went 14 innings and gave up 11 earned runs. Garza opposed Cole in the 2-1 Milwaukee loss earlier this season in Pittsburgh where he gave up one run in seven innings. In 14 career starts against the Pirates Garza is 3-6 with an ERA of 4.14. The Brewers have lost five of Garza’s last six starts against the Pirates, but they have won nine of his last 13 home starts.

Betting Angles

The Brewers are 63-22 in their last 85 home games against the Pirates.

In the last 17 games between these teams the Under record is 12-3-2.

In the last 4 games between these teams in Milwaukee the Under record is 3-0-1.

This season the Brewers are 19-20 at home and the Pirates are 12-20 on the road.

Straight Up / Over/Under / Run Line Records

Pittsburgh Pirates: 31-38 SU / O/U 32-32 / Run Line W/L 34-35
Milwaukee Brewers: 38-33 SU / O/U 41-27 / Run Line W/L 44-27

Pittsburgh at Milwaukee Key Betting Trends

  • PITT is 2-7 in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning record
  • PITT is 9-20 in their last 30 vs. National League Central
  • PITT has an Under record of 5-1-1 in their last 7 games
  • MIL is 5-1 in their last 6 overall
  • MIL is 4-1 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter
  • MIL has an Over record of 5-1 in their last 6 games

Key Player Injuries

[P] 05/28/2017 - Josh Lindblom 10-day DL (05/20) ( Side )
[P] 05/28/2017 - Antonio Bastardo 10-day DL (04/25) ( Quad )
[CF] 04/18/2017 - Starling Marte 80-game suspension (eligible to return 07/18 vs. Milwaukee) ( Suspension )

[2B] 06/10/2017 - Jonathan Villar 10-day DL (06/10) ( Back )
[P] 06/14/2017 - Brandon Woodruff 10-day DL (06/13) ( Hamstring )
[LF] 05/27/2017 - Ryan Braun 10-day DL (05/26) ( Calf )

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

The Pirates have lost three of their last four games and they are in 4th place in the NL Central six games back of the Brewers. They have had issues all season at the plate only ranking 26th in the Majors in runs scored and in their last four games they have only scored 11 runs. The Brewers have won five of their last six games and they are 2.5 games up on the 2nd place Chicago Cubs in the division. Cole is coming off a great start after really struggling in four straight outings. Facing the solid Brewers lineup he will not have the success that he had facing them in Pittsburgh earlier this season where he held them to one run. Garza has not been pitching well lately giving up 15 earned runs in his last four starts. He will be decent tonight, but the reason the Brewers will get the win is their bats. They will tag Cole up at home and win their 6th game in their last seven and hand the Pirates their 4th loss in five games.

Free Pick: 
Take the Brewers +105

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