The Lurker

Be betting in minutes using online checks

Educated guesses will take you only so far in sports betting

After watching the Super Bowl and witnessing a victory seemingly fly just past my outstretched fingertips, I began to ponder how much research I should really be putting into my plays.

I consider myself somewhat of an expert in handicapping the major North American sports, and I have no problem saying the element of unpredictability shines strongest in football.

In no other sport can a penalty or mistake by the opposition totally change the outcome of a contest. One pass interference call, interception, or fumble can completely change the momentum, and in turn the financial value of your betting ticket.

You can research what I like to call a team's discipline statistics (ie. penalties, sacks, turnovers, fumble recoveries) and make some educated guesses as to which team will prevail. But ultimately, by their nature, key turning points in pigskin are unpredictable.

So, the question remains. If two equally skilled teams are pitted against each other - especially in football - is there any point in doing much research if the outcome will be decided by something intangible?

That premise is debated over at the Covers sportsbook betting forum, under the headline, 'How much time do you invest in gambling'.

I think the answer is different depending on whether betting is your primary source of income or just a hobby. For someone who puts bread and milk on the table solely through their handicapping prowess, the answer to the above question should be obvious.

But for someone who bets $50 to $100 a game, and might come out at the end of the year up or down a thousand dollars, how much time is too much time to invest in predicting the outcome of sporting events?

I bettor with the handle, docrock, comes to the debate with a pragmatic perspective.

"I used to spend so much time studying games to make $50 bets and end up winning $1000 to $1500 a year. CFB and CBB mostly. I'm just ballparking this in my head but that couldn't have been more than $4 or $5 an hour," he said.

Docrock explained the reason he invests so much time into his picks is because he researches all the sports betting forums, and scours the newspapers before taking a side.

One of the first things people learn at business school is that time is money. So, if you're spending four hours a day on research, for a $25 bet, does it make financial sense?

And what else could you be doing instead of poring over a college newspaper sports story on some obscure football team?

One poster to the thread said: "It is embarrassing when your girlfriend goes out with friends on Friday night and they ask her where her boyfriend is. And she replies, 'He couldn't come out because he is capping all 112 NCAA games tomorrow and several of the women's tennis matches.'"

That's obviously the extreme, but it hammers home the work/life balance point fairly succinctly.

The extreme on the other side of the equation is the novice bettor who just throws away his money because he hasn't invested any time - or at least insightful time - into his plays.

I guy with the nic, Jangster, likely wouldn't call himself a novice, but based on the following post he made to the thread, it would be hard to describe him as anything else.

"I spend no more than an hour on it. I usually bet on things that I have at least (some) knowledge. The thing is, it depends on if you count watching SportsCenter on ESPN as "capping" or not, because you'd see news, highlight, stats, and possible hype or what not, which may factor in my plays."

Excuse me? SportsCenter as a 'capping service? It's nothing more than the sports version of Entertainment Tonight. Their job is to torque up just about every storyline to ensure you'll watch the game. It could be a snore-fest between two basement dwellers and they'd find a way to spin it into the game of the century.

Ultimately, you'll invest whatever time you think is necessary to get a decent handle on that night's match-up. While $4 or $5 an hour doesn't really appeal to me either, I guess that's why they call it a hobby.

But, when all the stars are in line, and the referees stay out of deciding the outcome, the feeling you get from predicting the outcome is euphoric.

You're on top of the world. For at least a day you walk around with your head held high, and most times the money you won from the game can't come close to touching the proud feeling you have from the hard work you put into predicting the outcome.

It's at times like that when you know you invested just the right amount of time into researching your picks.

Bet On Games with your credit card