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The Definitive Derby Prep

Outside of the Lexington, the Derby Trial and possibly the Withers, the last 2 major tune-ups before the Kentucky Derby are billed this week as the Arkansas Derby and the Blue Grass Stakes are renewed.

The definitive preps in recent years have changed. Last year Giacomo used a 4th in the Santa Anita Derby as a springboard. But only three horses in recent years, Affirmed, Sunday Silence, and Winning Colors, have gone on to Kentucky glory.

In 2004 Smarty Jones parlayed an Arkansas Derby score to immortality. The year before that Funny Cide was beaten a half-length in the Wood, but then took the first two thirds of the Triple Crown.

War Emblem burst on the scene and took the Illinois Derby before success at Churchill in 2002 and before than Monarchos parlayed his big payday from the Florida Derby.

Fusaichi Pegasus kicked off the decade with an easy Wood score before garnering the roses in Louisville.

History has been good to the Blue Grass. The winners of this important fixture include Whirlaway, Shut Out, Tomy Lee, Chateaugay, Northern Dancer, Lucky Debonair, Dust Commander, Riva Ridge, and Spectacular Bid. The last horse to pull the Blue Grass/Derby double was Strike the Gold 15 years ago.

ARKANSAS DERBY

Oaklawn Park hosts the Arkansas Derby and a big field of 14, with 12 betting interests, are ready to rumble. At this time of the year you don't want to switch gears too often, it is much better to have a game plan and stick to it, but Lane's End upsetter With a City has opted for this race instead of going directly to Kentucky. And he will have to prove good horses can parlay a win on the Polytrack to success in front of the world.

Lawyer Ron is the one to deny. If he can build on his career 106 Beyer, he will take some beating. His Rebel Beyer of 94 seemed on the light side in retrospect since the runner had to change his style and he still won going away.

High Cotton got away with moderate splits the day he won the Rushaway and must prove he can take some heat and not get burned. He looks like the speed of the speed again but could be pressured by Superfly, Simon Pure and Rebel flop Private Vow.

Jealous Profit finally graduated at Santa Anita in his last start but hopes to carry that good California mojo to Arkansas.

New Joysey Jeff, it seems, is hoping against hope. His only win came short on grass and he was dull sixth at 16-1 in the San Felipe. The only thing the Joysey guy has going for him is that he did chase the Wood and Bay Shore winners this year. Nob Hill Deelite has penned his entire resume in Louisiana and just was incarcerated by Lawyer Ron.

Private Vow may have been exposed in his beat in the Rebel but he was taken back that day and will likely be sent hard here. Red Raymond is an interesting runner. He shows up just about every time, has a nice kick, is in good hands, and is coming off a career Beyer.

Sayhellotolarry could be the wise guy horse even from his extreme outside slot. He has shown flashes of brilliance, he overcame trouble to win in his last start, and he loves this strip.

Superfly will try to give this field the shaft and he should be forwardly placed while Film Fortune is a rank outsider after failing to beat maidens last time at one to two odds.

Well Said was a rebel without a cause in his recent loss to Ron but he will offer value and could slip in for a section at a price. Steppenwolfer has won locally, held his own in his last race and must be considered in all the slots basically off fact he was inching toward the winner in the Southwest Stakes here on Feb. 25.

Aaron Gryder, who has done well since shipping to Santa Anita, is confident in his mount Jealous Profit. His view in the Oaklawn notes, Gryder: "This colt was very impressive breaking his maiden. Doug wouldn't be shipping halfway across the country if he didn't think he had a chance."

Lawyer Ron appears to be improving on his way to the race. He drilled impressively the other day and his trainer Bob Holthus had this to say, Holthus: "No question, this was Lawyer Ron's best work ever. Yes, we worked fast, but he wasn't driving or ripping. He is an excellent workhorse, and he just does things that other horses can't do. And he does them easily."

Here's how it will unfold: High Cotton will be gunned from post 3, Private Vow will try to keep up, Simon Pure will be pushing the issue from the get go and Superfly will be sent along too, as trainer Nick Zito pleases.

Lawyer Ron can settle down just off the leaders in the 2nd tear and watch the speedballs attack each other. After about a mile, Pure will be finished, High Cotton will be feeling the toll of the respectable splits and will give way to Private Vow on the lead.

Ron goes to court now and makes a 3 wide move to reach contention at the top of the lane. He puts away Vow like a dismissed jury, starts to get tired, but has enough octane in the tank left to hold off With a City, with Jealous Profit getting a slice at boxcars and Sayhellotolarry completing the superfecta.

BLUE GRASS STAKES

The Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland seems to have more quality and you may even think you hear Caddyshack's Carl Spackler in the crowd whispering 'this is a hybrid, a cross between Kentucky Bluegrass, Featherbed Bent and Sensemilia', but the when the smoke clears, this will be the more potent prep.

Nine have entered and those on the inside appear the better placed. Runners from the 6th to 9th posts are between 12-1 and 15-1 on the line with the main contenders starting from the rail nailed at 10-1 to 8-5. In order, Little Cliff's best asset could be that he is one of 2 in the field with a win at Keeneland. He will have to come off the pace to get there.

Bluegrass Cat is out to make amends after missing at 2-5 in the Tampa Derby but he sure was not flattered when the horse that beat him was 6th of 9 in the Wood last week. Storm Treasure has only won once, but you can dismiss any runner from the prolific Steven Asmussen barn at your own risk.

It's now or never time for Strong Contender. Unbeaten after 2 starts, he has tons of untapped talent, but not sure he has been beating anybody. Runner who ran second in this guy's maiden breaker won next, and then was crushed thrice. This guy will have to run first or second to go on to Churchill.

First Samurai was bothered and then put up in the Fountain of Youth. He doesn't have to win to take that next step and now gets red-hot rider in Rafael Bejarano and this sophomore should dictate the action.

Court Folly is a one run wonder that won a sprint here last fall. The race will have to fall apart for him to get there.

Sinister Minister has failed for a maiden claiming tag, chased the Bay Shore winner two back. Sadler's Trick has the profile of a horse that will adore the added real estate. Seaside Retreat has penned his resume in Canada and on the Polytrack and will need a break out race.

This is the way we visualize it. First Samurai will be the one to catch. He has sat just off the pace but looms the speed of the speed here and will likely take advantage of that zip. Sinister Minister will have to gun and that will leave Strong Contender sitting the garden trip.

Bluegrass Cat will lead the second tier with Storm Treasure next and the others far back.

Samurai will take them to the top of the lane, he'll put away Minister by then, but will have to dig in and look Strong Contender in the eye. At that point Contender starts to force his will on the field and opens up 2 and a half-lengths with a 16th of a mile to go. Bluegrass Cat makes a run, but too late, with Little Cliff and Sadler's Trick completing the generous superfecta. Good luck.

Brian Mulligan was the main West Coast line maker for the Daily Racing Form for nearly 20 years. He continues to contribute to that paper. Check out his other endeavor at LiveHorsesOnline.com. You may write to Brian at xsweep@cox.net

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