Horse Wagering

2006 BELMONT STAKES ANALYSIS



Despite the fact that this edition of the Belmont Stakes will be the first since 2000 and only the third time in 36 years to be staged without the winner of the Kentucky Derby or Preakness, the race comes up intriguing.

All races, obviously, are different, as are all classics, but let's take a quick glance as to where the winners have come from in the last 6 Belmont Stakes.

In 2000 the bunnies were out in full force as Hugh Hefner set the pace in the Belmont. Unfortunately for the playboys in the crowd, the winner, Commendable, got a perfect 2-hole trip behind the suspect speed, opened up 2 and half-lengths at the top of the lane and had enough to hold off a rail skimming Apitude.

The next year, Point Given also got a great trip sitting in the perfect garden spot early again behind suspect speed. He easily assumed the lead, had 7 at the top of the lane, and won by over a dozen in a dominating performance while just being shown the whip.

The 2002 Belmont was a success in contrast. Sarava was coming off a win against a soft stakes field, sat mid-pack early in the Belmont, struggled to make the lead by a half length at the top of the lane, and held that margin to the wire winning at 70-1. It must be noted that War Emblem, who had won the Derby and the Preakness, had a horrible trip when off slow, acted rank, was steadied, then wilted.

It was back to a tactical winning trip for the 2003 hero as Empire Maker sat third early in the sloppy going under a classic Jerry Bailey ride. He made the top after a mile, inched away, and just had enough in the tank to hold off Ten Most Wanted with Funny Cide a failure in his attempt to win the Triple Crown.

Wrestler Stone Cold Steve Austin loved the 2004 winner Birdstone who choked the life out of the leaders coming from third to last to take the Belmont and spoiling the hopes of yet another potential TC winner in Smarty Jones.

Last year's winner Afleet Alex swooped, went past the field like they were statues, and drew off coming from about 6 lengths back at one point. He was much the best.

What these recaps tell us is that tactical speed works, but it is not the elixir for every single horse out there.

Post positions do not play as important a role in this classic as they do in the other legs. At a mile and a half, runners can settle, be placed just about anywhere the riders want, and then just perform. The way this year's Belmont Stakes shakes out projects like this, from the rail out.

Platinum Couple has a tin of a chance. He doesn't belong. He's a New York bred that has been totally mis-managed. If this guy wins, he'll blow up the tote.

Sunriver is the wise-guy horse. His trainer Todd Pletcher has two capable runners with the Cat the more preferred in some quarters. This guy had trained super just before the Derby but did not get in because of lack of earnings. He came and got the speed in the Peter Pan in a peak performance and just might not be done quite yet.

Hemingway's Key is coming to the race right. He also won at first asking, not Nick Zito's style, was troubled in his Turfway race and didn't fit the track bias at Keeneland.

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Bob and John has several things going for him. His trainer Bob Baffert won this race with Point Given in 2001 and finished 2nd twice with Silver Charm and Real Quiet. John's connections did the right thing by the horse by skipping the Preakness and he has worked the proverbial hole in the wind at Santa Anita of late with 3 straight bullet moves in May.

High Finance has one way to go. That's to the front, try to discourage the other speed, and steal the event. It will be an enormous chore. He only has beaten entry-level allowance runners and he was losing ground the stretch that day to boot.

Oh So Awesome is the new face and he can't be dismissed. He has light Timeform ratings, only has the one win, but it was at a mile and 5 sixteenths, and he is in the sizzling barn of Jimmy Jerkens and is owned by the clever Team Valor group. He also came out of a live race in his Longchamp finale. The place horse that day, Darsi, won the French Derby last Sunday.

Deputy Glitters is suspect to say the least. He graduated at first asking for a tag, upset Bluegrass in the Tampa Bay Derby, and was beaten 29 lengths in his last 2 races. His backers have to hope this guy can catch the Tampa Bay Lightning in a bottle once again.

Jazil will have his supporters as he figures to run better with this kind of real estate but on the other hand, his rallies could have been more optical illusion then true close. He got up very late for 2nd in the Wood and with all the speed in the Derby; almost everybody expected the race to fall apart. There is nowhere near the kind of zip in this field as there was in Kentucky.

Bluegrass Cat, the leading earner in the field and unbeaten in 2 Belmont starts, should get a great trip. He was fairly close up in the Derby, had dead aim on the eventual winner, but held on well to be 2 clear of the show horse. One of his best assets is his tactical speed and he could even sit the garden trip behind some suspect zip.

Double Galore just beat perennial maiden King Palm, who is owned by the Maloof brothers of Palm Casino and Sacramento Kings fame. His trainer and owner Myung Kwon Cho has done well by overmatching horses in the past but this is a bit ridiculous.

Rock and rollers will be out in full force to wager on Steppenwolfer. He's the real deal, was 6 wide in the Derby, and has fired every time except the time he raced on grass. This is a legit late player in the Stakes today.

Sacred Light looks overmatched on paper but don't sell this guy too short. He was totally eliminated in the Santa Anita Derby, was left with too much to do in his last beat at Churchill. But his trainer, Dave Hofmans, had a similar horse win this very race in 1997.

Here's the way the race will unfold: High Finance pops the gate and clears. Deputy Glitters will press with Bob and John joining the first flight. That will leave Bluegrass Cat getting a super trip sitting 4th.

Sunriver will be running on his own in 5th early, with the next flight headed by Sacred Light, Steppenwolfer, Oh So Awesome, Hemingway's Key, Double Galore and Platinum Couple with Jazil dead last.

After a mile Finance will be looking for a bankruptcy lawyer. Glitters will lose his shine, and Bob and John will start to remember he got beat 31 plus lengths in the Derby.

This is the time Bluegrass Cat responds and takes over. At the top of the lane he has 2 lengths, he'll maintain that margin to the wire holding off live long shot Oh So Awesome with Steppenwolfer nipping Sacred Light for the show dough. Add Hemingway's Key and Sunriver in the superfecta and for $60 you could have a $1 key with the Cat with the prospect of getting paid. Key Bluegrass Cat in the 2nd spot, and you could be looking at a high 4-figure payoff if a long shot nips the Cat.

Good luck and look for the ghost of Sinatra in the stands.

Brian Mulligan was the main West Coast line maker for the Daily Racing Form for nearly 20 years. He continues to contribute to that paper. Check out his other endeavor at LiveHorsesOnline.com. You may write to Brian at xsweep@cox.net

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