Horse Handicapping

Past Breeders Cup Winners

One would think that given a mile and a half and about two and a half minutes, one could crown a champion, but that didn't happen concretely in 2003 in the Breeders' Cup Turf when Johar and High Chaparral dead heated for the win at Santa Anita.

And look for another close finish this year. In the first nine Turf runnings, the largest margin of victory was a half length four times, a head, a nose and three neck decisions to boot.

Considering that grass racing and grass marathons are the specialty of those across the pond, it's no surprise that half of the 22 Turf winners were foreigners including the highest price winner, the inaugural hero Lashkari, who blew up the Hollywood Park tote at $108.80.

If you want to swallow chalk, know that eight favorites have won the Turf but there have also been nine that have paid 8-1 or better.

There's a saying that time is only important if you are in jail or waiting for a bus, and in a race like this it is probably true, but for the record Fraise posted the fastest Turf in 1992 in 2:24.08. As far as style, you can be placed anywhere in this race and win if you are good enough. There is plenty of time to even overcome a mishap and the riders from overseas are specialists at marathon distances. Six of the last seven winners were handled by overseas pilots.

Bettors should remember about pace in this race. Two Churchill Turf winners went virtually all the way on the front end and 42-1 Miss Alleged was fairly close up in 1991 pulling her upset.