Horse Handicapping

Past Breeders Cup Winners - Juvenile Fillies

Maurice Chevalier is infamous for his song 'Thank Heaven for Little Girls' but when it comes to the equine set, nothing could be more true. The BC Juvenile Fillies started out like a real cat fight in 1984 when Outstandingly was put up via disqualification at $47.60 but it has been a chalk fest pretty much ever since. Only six other double-digit fillies were unsaddled including the bomb of all bombs in Caressing at $96.00

Twelve of the 22 winners were favorites including the last four, and seven of the last 10. As with the juvenile, the same distance changes occurred for this race with Twilight Ridge being the fastest of the milers in 1985 with a 1:35.80 clocking and foreigner Tempera being the quickest at this year's distance with a 1:41.49 time.

The trend has been to stalk and pounce in general terms. Only three fillies were able to tow-rope their foes on the lead the entire distance including Folklore last year and Flanders, who accomplished the feat at Churchill in 1994.

In the five Churchill renewals, the largest margin of victory was a length and three quarters when Open Mind kicked off the all-D. Wayne Lukas trifecta in 1988, coming from second-to-last. Another deep closer won in Kentucky three years later when Pleasant Stage was 12th of 14 early with the 1998 and 2000 races being won by pace pressers.

Would again give a long look to the Western contingent and if you are looking to gamble on a speed play, think about Appealing Zophie.