Horse Handicapping

Past Breeders Cup Winners - Juvenile Colts

Like with any new project there are growing pains and the BC Juvenile is a case in point. Three of the first four runnings were carded at a mile and because of the configuration of Arlington, it was at 9 furlongs in 2002. The staple distance is a mile and a sixteenth, and that's the trip this year.

The fastest mile winner was Success Express at 1:35.20 in 1987 and the fastest at this year's distance was posted by Favorite Trick when he went 1:41.47 ten years later.

The winning trend had been to be fairly close to the lead. There have been five wire-to-wire winners and most of the heroes have been within three lengths of the lead the entire race. But two of the last three Juvenile winners came from dead last and in the most visually impressive juvenile in years conducted at Churchill, Arazi came from last and 13th in an electrifying performance in 1991. Arazi was coming off a win in France but he was the only foreigner of six that ran in the Cup at Churchill and scored.

Eight favorites have won in 22 races with only three real shockers including the $55.60 and $58.60 scores in two of the last three years.

Recency has been key at Churchill, as all five previous Juveniles winners there had their last prep in October and three of them won and the other two ran second. As far as making a statement, it's been Favorite Trick, who won by the largest margin of five and a half lengths.

Remember what the Doors Jim Morrison said, 'the West is Best', and three of the last four Juveniles winners were based in California.