Super Bowl Picks

There's something weird about this year's Super Bowl: The New Orleans Saints are in it.

It's weird because the Saints have only been to the playoffs seven times since they made their NFL debut in 1969. And it's weird because the Saints were completely outplayed in last week's 31-28 Conference Championship win over the Vikings. But that's the kind of weird we prefer here at stately Raine Mansion. Minnesota was a 3.5-point dog when I made my picks (moving to +4 at the kick-off), and Minnesota was where our money was.

Alas, we also had the Jets (+7.5), who couldn't hold off Peyton Manning as he led the Indianapolis Colts to a 30-17 comeback victory over pesky New York. That left us 1-1 ATS last week and 38-37-3 ATS on the season. You win some, you lose some.

Anyway, once more unto the breach. We'll wrap up this year's picks with my shiny septuple-star titanium keyless-entry deadbolt lock selections for Super Bowl XLIV. Thank you for joining us once again.

New Orleans Saints vs. Indianapolis Colts (-5.5)

It's not easy giving the Saints (15-3 SU, 9-9 ATS) any points at all, let alone more than a field goal. But the Colts (16-2 SU, 12-5-1 ATS) have been getting most of the sharp action, and for good reason. They have not lost a meaningful football game all season. The Saints have tailed off at the end of the year at 1-6 ATS in their last seven games. Indianapolis is 5-2 ATS in that same span, and the two losses were in the final two games of the season - the non-meaningful ones from which the Colts yanked their starters.

Saints vs. Colts: UNDER 56.5

It's usually not my style to parlay the UNDER with the favorite, but I'm doing it anyway. This is a very, very large total, the largest in Super Bowl history. It's large enough that the Colts have plenty of wiggle room to outscore the Saints without putting undue pressure on the total. The two defenses have two valuable weeks to prepare for this game. The UNDER is 4-2 since that second week was added to the wait between the Conference Championships and the Super Bowl.

Super Bowl XLIV MVP: Drew Brees (9-4)

This is going against my own Super Bowl pick, but it's excellent value compared to Manning at 2-3. More quarterbacks get named MVP than any other position (22 times in 43 games), and Brees (34 TDs, 109.6 passer rating) has the gaudiest numbers of any QB in the league this year.

How long it will take (TBA) to sing the National Anthem: OVER

I'm betting blindly on this, since the entire props list isn't out as I write this. What we've seen in recent years is a total based on an actual previous performance of The Star-Spangled Banner by the singer in question. But this is the Super Bowl - you know you're going to get the super-prolonged Bleeding Gums Murphy version.